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Joe Walsh Will Not Save Us (G-File)

Dear Reader (including the poor Biden staffers who have to white-knuckle their armrests when not sucking down unfiltered Marlboros every time Joe Biden gives an interview),
If you’ve never heard the Milton Friedman shovels and spoons story, you will (and I don’t just mean here). Because everyone on the right tells some version of it at some point. The other Uncle Miltie (i.e., not the epically endowed comedic genius) goes to Asia or Africa or South America and is taken on a tour of some public works project in a developing country. Hundreds of laborers are digging with shovels. Milton asks the official in charge something like, “Why use shovels when earth moving equipment would be so much more efficient?”
The official replies that this is a jobs program and using shovels creates more jobs.
Friedman guffaws and asks, “In that case: Why not use spoons?”
The story might not be true, but the insight is timeless.
Here’s another story: When I was in college, we were debating in intro to philosophy the differences between treating men and women “equally” versus treating them the “same.” At first blush, the two things sound synonymous, but they’re not (indeed the difference illuminates the chasm of difference between classical liberalism and socialism, but that’s a topic for another day). I pointed out that there were some firefighter programs that had different physical requirements for male applicants and female ones (this was before it was particularly controversial—outside discussions of Foucault—to assume there were clear differences between sexes). Female applicants had to complete an obstacle course carrying a 100-pound dummy, but men had to carry a 200-pound dummy, or something like that. A puckish freshperson named Jonah Goldberg said: “I don’t really care if a firefighter is a man, a woman, or a gorilla, I’d just like them to be able to rescue me from a fire.”
A woman sitting in front of me wheeled around and womansplained to me that “you can always just hire two women.”
I shot back something like, “You could also hire 17 midgets, that’s not the point.”
(I apologize for using the word midget, which wasn’t on the proscribed terms list at the time.)
But here’s the thing: Sometimes it is the point. Whether you’re talking about spoons or little people, the case for efficiency is just one case among many. Don’t get me wrong, I think it’s an important one, but it’s not the only one. Sometimes older children are told to bring their little brothers or sisters along on some trip. They’ll complain, “But they’ll just slow us down!” or, “But they aren’t allowed on the big kid rides.” Parents understand the point, but they are not prioritizing efficiency over love. Or, they’re prioritizing a different efficiency: Not being stuck with a little kid who’s crying all day because he or she was left behind.
One of my favorite scenes in the movie Searching for Bobby Fischer is when the chess tutor Bruce Pandolfini, played by Ben Kingsley, tells the chess prodigy’s parents that they have to forbid their son from playing pickup chess in the park because he learns bad chess habits there. The mom says “Not playing in the park would kill him. He loves it.”
Kingsley replies, accurately, that it “just makes my job harder.”
And the mom says, “Then your job is harder.”
I love that. I love it precisely because it recognizes that good parents recognize that there are trade-offs in life and that the best option isn’t always the most efficient one.
This is one of those places where you can see how wisdom and expertise can diverge from one another.
The Unity of Goodness
Efficiency can mean different things in different contexts. In business, it means profit maximization (or cost reduction, which is often the same thing). In sports, it means winning. Always giving the ball to the best player annoys the other players who want their own shot at glory, but so long as he can be counted on to score, most coaches will err on the side of winning. Starting one-legged players will wildly improve a basketball team’s diversity score, but it’s unlikely to improve the score that matters to coaches—or fans.
I’ve long argued that there’s something in the progressive mind that dislikes this whole line of thinking. They often tend to find the idea of trade-offs to be immoral or offensive. I call it the “unity of goodness” worldview. Once you develop an ear for it, you can hear it everywhere. “I refuse to believe that economic growth has to come at the expense of the environment.” “There’s no downside to putting women in combat.” “I don’t want to live in a society where families have to choose between X and Y,” or “I for one reject the idea that we have to sacrifice security for freedom—or freedom for security.” Both Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were masters at declaring that all hard choices were “false choices”—as if only mean-spirited people would say you can’t have your cake and eat it too.
Saint Greta
Nowhere is this mindset more on display in environmentalism. Everyone hawking the Green New Deal insists that it’s win-win all the way down. It’s Bastiat’s broken window parable on an industrialized scale. Spending trillions to switch to less efficient forms of energy will boost economic growth and create jobs, they insist. I’d have much more respect for these arguments if they simply acknowledged that doing a fraction of what they want will come at considerable cost.
Consider Greta Thunberg, the latest child redeemer of the climate change movement. She hates planes because they spew CO2. That’s why she sailed from Sweden to a conference in New York. As symbolism, it worked, at least for the people who already agree with her. But in economic terms, she might as well have raised the Spoon Banner off the main mast of her multi-million-dollar craft (that may have a minimal carbon footprint now, but required an enormous carbon down-payment to create). The organizers of this stunt had to fly two people to New York to bring the ship back across the Atlantic. And scores of reporters flew across the Atlantic to cover her heroic act of self-denial. Her nautical virtue signaling came at a price.
The organizers insist that they will buy carbon offsets to compensate for the damage done. But that’s just clever accounting. The cost is still real. And that’s not the only cost. It took her fifteen days to get to America. In other words, she actually proved the point of many of her critics. Fossil fuels come with costs all their own—geopolitical, environmental, etc.—but the upside of those downsides is far greater efficiency. If you want to get across the Atlantic in seven hours instead of two weeks, you need fossil fuels. The efficiency of modern technology reduces costs by giving human beings more time to do other stuff.
The Conservative Planners
The unity of goodness mindset has been spreading to the right these days as well. The new conservative critics of the free market see the efficiency of the market as a threat to other good things. And they’re right, as Joseph Schumpeter explained decades ago. For instance, just as earth-moving equipment replaces ditch-diggers in the name of efficiency, robots replace crane operators, and the communities that depended on those jobs often suffer as a result.
I have no quarrel with this observation. My problem is with the way they either sell their program as cost-free, or pretend that the right experts can run things better from Washington. They know which jobs or industries need the state to protect them from the market. They know how to run Facebook or Google to improve the Gross National Virtue Index. Many of the same people who once chuckled at the Spoons story now nod sagely. I don’t mean to say that there’s no room for government to regulate economic affairs. But I am at a loss as to why I should suspend my skepticism for right-wingers when they work from the same assumptions of the left-wingers I’ve been arguing with for decades.
Embracing Trumpism to Own Trump
Instead I want—or I guess need—to talk about another trade-off. I’ve been very reluctant to weigh in on the Joe Walsh project for a bunch of reasons. The biggest is that I am friends with some of the people cheering it on. But I think I have to offer my take.
I don’t get it.
Oh, I certainly understand the desire to see a primary challenger to Trump. I share that desire. And I understand the political calculation behind the effort. It’s like when one little league team brings in some dismayingly brawny and hirsute player from Costa Rica as a ringer. The other teams feel like they have to get their own 22-year-olds with photoshopped birth certificates in order to compete. My friend Bill Kristol is convinced that Trump must be defeated and that Walsh is just the mongoose to take on the Cobra-in-Chief.
I try not to recycle metaphors or analogies too much, but this seems like another example of a Col. Nicholson move. As I’ve written before, Col. Nicholson was the Alec Guinness character in The Bridge Over the River Kwai. The commanding officer of a contingent of mostly British POWs being held by the Japanese, Nicholson at first follows the rules and refuses to cooperate with his captors in their effort to use British captives as slave labor for a bridge project. But then his pride kicks in and he decides he will show the Japanese what real soldiering is like, agreeing to build the bridge as a demonstration of British superiority in civil engineering. [Spoiler alert] It’s only at the end of the film that he realizes that building the bridge may have been a kind of short-sighted moral victory, but in reality he was helping the Japanese kill allied troops because the bridge was going to be used for shipping Japanese troops and ammunition. When this realization finally arrives, he exclaims, “My God, what have I done?”
Walsh’s primary brief against Trump is that Trump is temperamentally unfit for office and a con man. Fair enough. But he has to focus his indictment on Trump’s erratic behavior. Why? Because he’s a terrible spokesman for much of the rest of the case against Trump. I may not call myself “Never Trump” any more, but I was in 2016. And back then, the argument against Trump wasn’t simply that he was erratic. It was also that he wasn’t a conservative, that he happily dabbled in racism and bigotry, and that he was crude, ill-informed, and narcissistically incapable of putting his personal interests and ego aside for the good of the country. I’m sure I’m leaving a few other things out. But you get the point.
Walsh may be sincere in his remorse over all the racist and incendiary things he said in the very recent past. He may regret supporting his anti-Semitic friend Paul Nehlen, though I haven’t found evidence of that. But none of that history should be seen as qualifications for the presidency, the Republican nomination, or support from conservatives.
And yet, it is precisely these things that make him attractive to his conservative supporters. Trump is an entertainer who trolls his enemies with offensive statements for attention, so let’s find someone who does the exact same thing!
Walsh may have been a one-term congressman, but his true vocation was as a shock-jock trolling provocateur. It’s ironic. As I’ve argued countless times, much of Trump’s bigotry in 2016 stemmed less from any core convictions than from a deep belief that the GOP’s base voters were bigoted and he needed to feed them red meat. Trump's reluctance to repudiate David Duke derived primarily from his ridiculous assumption that Duke had a large constituency he didn’t want to offend. He may have believed the Birther stuff, but he peddled it because that’s what his fans wanted. And Joe Walsh was one of those fans.
It may also be true that Walsh never really believed most of the bilge he was peddling and that he was doing the same thing Trump did—feeding the trolls—on a smaller scale. But if that’s the case, then he’s a con man, too.
I don’t want to beat up on Walsh too much because, again, his epiphany may be sincere. There are lots of people who pushed certain arguments too far only to recognize that the payoff was Trump and the transformation of conservatism into a form of right-wing identity politics. There are a lot of Col. Nicholsons out there. And I have too much respect for Bill Kristol to believe that he would lend his support to someone he believed to be as bigoted as the man Walsh seemed to be a few years ago.
But from where I sit, the prize we should keep our eyes on isn’t defeating Trump; it’s keeping conservatism from succumbing to Trumpism after he’s gone. This isn’t easy, and no tactic is guaranteed to be successful. We’ve never been here before. My own approach is to agree with Trump policies when I think they’re right—judges, buying Greenland, etc.—and disagreeing when they’re wrong. My own crutch is to simply tell the truth as I see it, regardless of whether it fits into some larger political agenda or strategy. Truth is always a legitimate defense of any statement.
But for those who see themselves as political players as well as public intellectuals, I think this is a terrible mistake. Intellectually and morally, the case for continued opposition to—or skepticism about, Trump cannot—or rather must not—be reduced to simple Trump hatred. But by rallying around Walsh—instead of, say, Mark Sanford, or Justin Amash, or, heh, General Mattis—that’s what it looks like. Because you can’t say, “I’m standing on principle in my opposition to a bigoted troll and con man as the leader of my party and my country and that’s why I am supporting a less successful bigoted troll and con man for president.” Walsh isn’t a conservative alternative to Trump; he’s an alternative version of Trump. And his candidacy only makes sense if you take the “binary choice” and “Flight 93” logic of 2016 and cast Trump in the role of Hillary.
Let’s imagine the Walsh gambit works beyond anyone’s dreams and Joe Walsh ends up getting the GOP nomination (a fairly ludicrous thought experiment, I know). If so, I have no doubt that my friend Bill Kristol will say, a la Col. Nicholson, “My God, what have I done.”
Various & Sundry
Canine Update: It’s good to be home. The beasts were delighted to see us. Everything is settling back to normal, except for one intriguing development. I think Zoë has finally had enough with Pippa’s tennis ball routine. The other day on the midday walk with the pack, Kirsten managed to film Zoë putting an end to the tennis ball shenanigans. She took the ball and buried it. It was, to use an inapt phrase, a baller move—and she was unapologetic about it. Maybe she just didn’t like all the commotion with the other dogs, because she’s tolerant of the tennis ball stuff again. Or maybe she was being protective of her sister given that many of the other dogs in the pack are known thieves. Regardless, they’re doing well and having fun.
If you haven’t tuned into The Remnant lately, please give it another try. The first episode of the week was with Niall Ferguson and the feedback has been great. The latest episode is with my friend and AEI colleague Adam White on all things constitutional. Word of mouth is really important in building up audiences, so if you can spread the word about The Remnant or this “news”letter, I’d be grateful.
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TALLAHASSEE EVENTS 6/23 – 7/2

Good list this week.
Tally’s Independent Cinema and Theater Offerings:
ALSO:
SATURDAY 6/23
SUNDAY 6/24
  • Fat Cat Café: Yoga with Kitties. “Only 15 spots available per class. Please bring a $10 donation to Black Cats, Old Dogs and a yoga mat. Includes a 50-minute yoga class with 20 minutes of cuddle time following. Book online to reserve your spot.” 10am/$10
  • Local 501: LOCAL - The Day Party Edition - NOW WITH ADDED Manley. “This month's LOCAL at Local 501 is a special edition - Sunday day party featuring the one and only Manley aka Christopher Paul Manley aka the brains behind Menace Beach. Fall through and welcome the main man back to Tallahassee. Have a beer (or six) with him. Vibe out to the house vibes provided by DJ A to the L before Manley takes over on the ones and twos. We're rocking from 1pm to 6pm at Local 501 - Barbershop by day, lounge by night... once the day's business is done, the couches come out, the pool table is set, and the bar is open with some of the finest craft beers on tap.” 1pm
  • Hurricane Grill: Sunday Fun Day with Brad Foutch! 3pm
  • Jan’s Gallery: Jan, Mike & Rachel Get Ready for Ireland! 6:45pm/$5
MONDAY 6/25
  • Junction @ Monroe: Monday Night Bingo. “Good food, good drinks, good friends, and a chance to win some big cashola! It doesn't get any better than [email protected]. Every Monday from 7pm-9pm we've got cash payouts up to $250 per game with multiple games each night PLUS a 50/50 drawing each week benefitting the Tallahassee Area Musicians Guild.” 7pm-9pm
  • Lofty Pursuits: Game Night. 7pm
  • Hobbit American Grill West: Quiz Night from Bar Trivia With Hank. “They got wings, they got beer, and now they have great trivia. Come on out to a new night!” 7pm
  • Blue Tavern (N Monroe St): Lost Mondays hosted by Belmont & Jones. “Antique blues played acoustical.” 8pm/$2
  • Waterworks: Napoleon Dynamite Patio Theater. 7:35pm/21+/free
  • Finnegan’s Irish Pub: Karaoke with DJ Paul Cornish and Hospitality Night. “If you're a hospitality worker, don't forget to bring your most recent paystub or work schedule to receive that sweet 25% discount!” 10pm
  • LeRoy Collins Library: African Caribbean Dance Theatre. “All ages welcomed! Special performance from the ACDT! Expect a history, music, & dance lesson and lots of fun!” 6:30pm
TUESDAY 6/26
  • Corner of Georgia & Macomb: Frenchtown Farmers’ Market. “Find your favorite local goodies now on Tuesdays! Join us at Frenchtown Farmers Market for all-local produce, eggs, gourmet jelly, and more. The market opens at 3pm and we're here until 7pm, so come after you pick the kids up from school or on your way home from work. We can double SNAP benefits through the Fresh Access Bucks program. Our farmers accept WIC and Senior farmers market nutrition program coupons.” 3pm-7pm.
  • Junction @ Monroe: Live Rehearsal Tuesdays. “Tuesdays are Live Rehearsals at [email protected]. Sponsored by the Tallahassee Area Musicians Guild. Utilize our complete backline and PA for rehearsals, jams, or hold auditions. Up to one hour slots (or more depending on number of signups) per artist/group.” 4pm
  • Madison Social: Trivia Social. They do half and half theme and miscellaneous, so check their FB every week for an event page. 7pm
  • Brass Tap in Midtown: Trivia. Check their FB page for the theme. 7pm
  • Junction @ Monroe: Trivia. 7pm
  • Bird’s Oyster Shack: Trivia With John Carpenter. Lively and fun. 7:30pm
  • GrassLands Brewing Company: Trivia Factory. 7:30pm
  • Midtown Pies: Bar Trivia With Hank. 50 questions of sweet, sweet trivia. Food! Beer! Something random in a bag! 8pm/free
  • Fourth Quarter: Trivia With Professor Jim. AUCE wings. Truly a trivia favorite. 8pm
  • Krewe de Gras: Karaoke With Pete. 8:30pm
  • Brass Tap on Gaines: Karaoke with DJRah. 9pm
  • 926 Bar & Grill: Trivia Tuesday! 9:30pm
  • Applebee’s on the Parkway: Karaoke with Amanda Goram. 10pm
  • Pockets Pool: Karaoke with Dwight. 10pm/21+
  • The Sharing Tree: Recycled Robot Build & Play. “Sharing Tree hosts an awesome day camp filled with robot and monster everything! Build your recycled Robot from reuse materials... make a monster book and play it out! Bring a lunch!” 10am/$40
  • Cap City Video Lounge: Killer Workout & Deathspa: Beach Body Bloodbath Double Feature! 7:30pm
  • The Bark: Felipe Pupo (philly), Channel Pyro, Artisan P. 10pm/$5/all ages
WEDNESDAY 6/27
  • Bird's Oyster Shack: Summer Vacation Jam with Jim and the Lab Rats. “The Wednesday Night Lab Session is approaching the end of another fabulous season and we will celebrate with a big jam session before I take a vacation and leave you in the most excellent care of my dear friends: Mike & Jan, Carrie Hamby, Lee C Payton, and Bruce Graybeal. For the Summer Vacation Jam on June 27 we will start a little early and run a little late just to get in all the fun. Helping me in the backing band for the first part of the show will be Kevin Robertson and Holly Riley. Mike & Jan and Eddie McFarland will join us for a couple numbers and I expect some other Lab Session alumni will come by as well. The backing band for the second part of the show will include: Ben Banks, Don Austin, Chris Skene, and Mike Stone. Stopping by to do a tune or two with the band will be TD & Kathi Giddings, Lee C Payton, Jimi McKenzie, Bruce Graybeal, and Katie Crozier-Theis AKA Sally B Dash.” 6pm
  • Fermentation Lounge: Trivia. 7pm
  • Brass Tap on Gaines: Trivia. Check their FB page for the theme. 7pm
  • Dave’s Pizza Garage: Trivia. 7pm
  • Hurricane Grill & Wings: Trivia With Greg. 7pm
  • Burrito Boarder: Dungeons & Dragons. “Different adventures every week. Beginners welcome.” 7pm
  • GrassLands Brewing Company: BYOBG! Bring Your Own Board Game. “Our gracious host, Trevor Bond, will be featuring one game each week. Feel free to bring your own games to play & share.” 7pm/21+
  • Junction @ Monroe: Bike Night, Bingo, and Karaoke. 7pm
  • Black Dog on the Square: Settlers of Catan Game Night. 7pm
  • Proof: Bar Trivia With Hank. “Drink delicious brews and show off all those random factoids you thought you’d never use. Local beer, local trivia in the heart of Tally’s Art District. They now have the MoBi food truck every week! Bar tab for 1st and 2nd place teams.” 7:30pm/21+/no cover
  • Cancuns: Singo (like Bingo but with music). 8pm
  • Island Wings: Wine Down Wednesday featuring Steve Johnson. 8pm
  • All Saints Club: The Warehouse Open Mic Lives! 8pm
  • Finnegan’s Wake: Waxy Wednesdays. “Feelin' waxy, Tallahassee? That's probably just because it's Wednesday. At Finnegan's Wake, Waxy Wednesday means DJ Ryze will be hitting our floor again to spin some vinyl and get your feet moving tonight. Feeling a bit sour, girls? Not to worry- we'll also have some fantastic $5 drink specials going for all those Tallahassee ladies looking for a bit of fun. Come out and help us get the party started!” 8pm
  • The Skybox (Crawfordville): Karaoke with Mark. 9pm
  • Krewe de Gras: DÉJÀ VU Latin Wednesdays. “FREE Salsa/Mambo classes by Barry C. Williams. The duration of the class is 9-10 and having a partner is not necessary. If you've never danced Salsa/Mambo before then don't worry about it. The classes are made to be easy and fun so you can come learn some moves and then stay and dance until 2am to the sounds of DJ Jimmy Suave.” 9pm
  • Just One More: Karaoke with Roger. 9pm
  • Corner Pocket: Karaoke. 9pm
  • Bird’s: Comedy Night. I’m pretty sure this is both a performance and an open mic. 9:30pm/free
  • The Bark on All Saints: Karaoke with Nathan. “Nathan has all the songs you could ever want, The Bark is a great space, and there’s a very friendly crowd. If you’re not really into the fratty or country karaoke scene, this may be your spot. They have mixed drinks, bountiful beer options, and amazing vegan/vegetarian food until 2 am – and I say that as a staunch omnivore.” 9:30pm
  • Fire Betty’s: Karaoke with DJ Paul Cornish. 10pm
  • 926: Dragged Out Wednesday. “We have Twice the Show! Twice the the DJ and Twice the Fun! Start the night with Cole during The Hours Of Happy and then finish the evening with Rebecca as they sling the magic behind the Bar. Hungry? Well Chris NoChill has you covered! He'll be rocking the kitchen all night! Then join the KingzKru for Showtime at 10:30 and Midnight while our DJ and She-J's Garion Djgg Grant and Izzy B (Isabella Berrios) keep the Dance Deck moving and you enjoying the party!” 10pm
  • Happy Motoring: Drag Bingo. “Happy Motoring is honored to host our first Drag Bingo. We’ve got some incredible queens hosting, delicious drinks, multiple performances and lots of Bingo fun.” 5pm
  • Fat Cat Café: Yoga with Kitties. “Only 15 spots available per class. Please bring a $10 donation to Black Cats, Old Dogs and a yoga mat. Includes a 50-minute yoga class with 20 minutes of cuddle time following. Book online to reserve your spot.” 6pm/$10
  • Cap City Video Lounge: Night Of The Lepus & Snakes On A Plane: Dr. Orloxian Presents! 7:30 pm
  • Waterworks: SpongeBob Trivia! “Our monthly trivia night for June heads to Bikini Bottom! Three rounds of trivia relating to the greatest cartoon to come from under the sea! First, second, and third place prizes will be given to those teams or individuals that know more about SpongeBob than the others.” 7:35pm/21+/free
THURSDAY 6/28
  • Lake Ella Area: Food Truck Thursday. 5:30pm
  • Kleman Plaza: Free Downtown YOGA! 6pm
  • Hurricane Wings: Double Take. 6pm
  • Beef O’Brady’s: AJ Johnson Trivia. 6:30pm
  • Hurricane: Ballistic Bingo. 7pm
  • 926 Bar & Grill: RuPaul Drag Race Viewing Party. 7pm-10pm
  • Skybox: $10 Cornhole Tourney. 7:30pm
  • La Fiesta: Trivia. 7:30pm
  • Junction @ Monroe: Karaoke and Dance Party. 8pm
  • Warhorse: Quiz Night from Bar trivia With Hank. “Sometimes dirty, always nerdy. Come on down and do 5 rounds of awesome, hand crafted trivia. Plus pizza and whiskey!” 8pm
  • Dux (Crawfordville): Karaoke with Big Bob. $25 bar tab given away every week. 8:30pm-12:30pm
  • Fermentation Lounge: Open Mic Night. “Sign-ups will begin at 7:30pm and be on a first come, first serve basis. Each getting around 12-15 minutes to perform. The first artist will begin at 8:30pm. Each artist will receive a FREE beer for their performance.” 8:30pm
  • Midtown Caboose: Trivia Factory. “General Knowledge, 20 questions + Wager Final. $35/$25/$15, and Best Team Name gets a round of shots.” 8pm
  • Island Wings: Bike Night. “A night dedicated just to you! We have a special menu just for those who ride their motorcycles to the restaurant, there is designated up front parking for your bikes, and live music on the patio from 8pm-11pm. There's no better place to eat, hang out with your friends, and show off your ride.” 8pm
  • Unique Wonders: Live Comedy with Big Hou! 8:30pm/$5
  • Junction @ Monroe: Comedy Zone: Frank Del Pizzo & Mark Evans. 9pm
  • Pockets: Karaoke Dance Party with Keith Welch. 9pm/21+
  • Brass Tap Midtown: Karaoke with DJ Rah. 9pm-Midnight
  • 926 Bar and Grill: Bass Parade: Ladies of Bass. 9pm
  • Applebees on Cap Cir: Karaoke with Amanda Goram. 10pm
  • Birds: Karaoke with Nathan. All the songs. $1 Pabst drafts. 10pm
  • The Sharing Tree: Music is Magic Day. “Day camp! Make, listen, build, play! Special guests musicians and make a fun instrument! Bring a lunch and have a blast!” 10am
  • Fire Betty’s: Brandon and Carli’s Throw Back Thursday: 90’s Cartoon Mixer. 5pm
  • Hurricane Grill and Wings: Kevin Ogden. 6pm
  • LeRoy Collins Library: Trivia Night. “Teens and Tweens! Come with your friends and test your trivia knowledge! Teams of 6 can enjoy snacks and compete for a 1st place prize! Sponsored by the Friends of the Library.” 6pm
  • Planned Parenthood: Sex Trivia at the New Tallahassee PP Health Center. “Show off your sexpertise with a night full of fun trivia, raffles, prizes and a chance to check out our brand new state-of-the-art health center. Our Planned Parenthood educators will test your knowledge of all things sex including surprising sex facts, the history of sexuality, sex myths and more! We will be providing complimentary food, desserts and non-alcoholic beverages. Beer, wine and a signature cocktail will be available for purchase (for those 21 and over). The first drink is on us! Spots are limited and filling up fast so please register if you plan to attend.” 7pm
  • Fifth & Thomas: Leon County Democrats Primary Primer. “Join the Leon County Democratic Party and community leaders and hosts for the Primary Primer, a fundraising event featuring a cash bar, heavy hors d'oeuvres and live music by local jazz legend Avis Berry!” 7pm
  • Cap City Video Lounge: The Beatniks & The Violent Years: MST3K Thursday! 7:30pm
  • Tallahassee Junior Museum: Soaring Cypress Full Moon Night Flight. “Tree To Tree Adventures’ Night Flights are a very exciting way to experience the Soaring Cypress zip line course in the dark. Grab your headlamps and zip through the tree-tops while conquering aerial obstacles and soaring over the cypress swamp.” 7:30pm/$49 nonmembers/$45 members
  • Blue Tavern: Paul Harvey and Katherine Easterling. 8pm
  • Finnegan’s Wake: Midnight Caravan. 8pm
  • The Bark: Logan Greene, Nude Tayne, Jacob FM. 8:30pm/$5/all ages
FRIDAY 6/29
  • Fifth & Thomas: RP Allen in the Backstage Garden. 6pm-8pm
  • Hobbit South: Karaoke with Paul. 8pm-Midnight/all ages
  • Leggetts: Karaoke presented by Galen Goram. 9pm
  • Just One More: Karaoke with Roger. 9pm
  • Island Wing Company: Friday Night Unwind. “End your work week on the island with live music on the patio at 9pm. Come enjoy some great food, drinks with your friends, and unwind.” 9pm
  • Stetsons @ The Moon: Karaoke with Devin Cywinski. 10pm/$5/18+
  • Hobbit West: Friday Night Comedy. “Friday night at the Hobbit we will be having a variety of comedy! From stand Up to Improv where the whole crowd can participate. 2 fro 1 drink specials all night with some of the best food in the city. All hosted by Big Hou!!” 10pm
  • Privé: Havana Nights. “Latin-Caribbean Vibes All Night Long.” 10pm
  • 926 Lounge: The Hot Friday Night Party - May the Fourth Edition. “Tallahassee's premier LGBTQA Hot Friday Night Party returns to kick off your weekend with another fabulous Friday night! This Friday is May The Fourth (insert Star Wars reference here) - so feel free to bring out your nerdy best. If that's not enough, after midnight, it becomes Cinco de Mayo as well - it's an amazing party weekend!” 10pm
  • Geo's Pub & Pool (both locations): Karaoke. 10pm-1am
  • Waterworks: June Paella Party! “Juan returns from Real Paella to cook up the best tasting Paella in the Big Bend! Paired with Waterworks' Sangria, it will be a wonderful and tasty early evening event. Cooking demonstration starts at 6:00pm with Paella serving at 7:00pm. Purchase a ticket inside Waterworks for each plate of Paella and redeem at the Paella station. Paella plates served with side salad $14.00 (tax included). Three types of Paella available: Paella mixta with seafood, chicken and lots of veggies. Valencia Paella with chicken, rabbit and duck. Vegan Paella.” 6:00pm
  • Hurricane Grill and Wings: John Sutton Band. 6pm
  • Fifth & Thomas: Shooter Jennings/Lisa Bouchelle/Luke Langford. 7pm/$35/21+
  • Palmer Monroe Teen Center: Splash & Jam 2018. “All area youth are invited to hang out every Friday night this summer, as another season of Splash & Jam takes over area community centers. Hosted by the City’s Parks, Recreation and Neighborhood Affairs (PRNA) Department and the Tallahassee Police Department (TPD), Splash & Jam, which originally began in 2011, offers local families and teens free, safe alternatives for late night summer fun. Splash & Jam will feature a family-style pool party – “the splash” – from 7-9 p.m. As there is not a pool at the Palmer Munroe Teen Center, there will be water activities from 7-9 p.m. After the splash, teens will be invited to “jam” inside the community centers at themed events featuring food, games and music. The teen parties will take place from 9-11 p.m. and are designed for middle and high school youth. Each event will be monitored by adult chaperones, City staff and police officers.” 7pm
  • American Legion Hall: NightShift. 8pm/$5
  • Proof: Southern Latitude Band. 8pm
  • The Wilbury: The Lessers/Cool Now/Stewie James/McCall & Katareen. 8pm/free
  • Cap City Video Lounge: Summer Camp Nightmare Fright Flicks Friday featuring Madman, The Burning, and Sleepaway Camp. 8pm
  • The Blue Tavern: The Flathead String Band. 8pm
  • The Bark: EtheAge Of Misery/HeatseekeLA-A. 8:30pm
  • Junction @ Monroe: RoadHouse 25th Anniversary Party. 9pm
  • The Warrior on the River: Otherworld with Johnny Zostant, Grimwär, and Aleutian Fire. 9pm
SATURDAY 6/30
  • Market Square: Tallahassee Farmer's Market. 8am-3pm
  • Downtown: Tallahassee Downtown Market. “Fresh from the garden local produce for fixing up that cool melon bowl. Fresh baked bread with jams and jellies just like granny made. Unique arts and craft gifts for you and yours all hand made by the artist in the booth. Come relax under the majestic oak on Park Ave at Monroe street as you listen to our own singer song writer Paul Harbin across the street from the Doubletree by Hilton. Want to be a vendor please join us! Information is available at www.downtownmarket.com or call the office at 850-224-3252. Thanks.” 10am-2pm
  • Corner of Georgia & Macomb: Frenchtown Farmers’ Market. “Find your favorite local goodies! Join us at Frenchtown Farmers Market for all-local produce, eggs, gourmet jelly, and more. We can double SNAP benefits through the Fresh Access Bucks program. Our farmers accept WIC and Senior farmers market nutrition program coupons.” 10am – 2pm.
  • Gamescape: Game Tally Saturday Board Gaming. “Meeting weekly in Tallahassee, Florida, we seek to promote and offer public opportunities to learn new games and make new friends in a relaxed, fun environment.” Noon
  • The Plant: Open Mike Jam Session. “Come to the plant and jam! Singing, music, spoken word, dance, all are welcome at this weekly open mic jam session.” 4pm
  • Salty Dawg: Karaoke with Paul. Family friendly! 8pm
  • Leggetts: Karaoke presented by Galen Goram. 9pm
  • The Skybox (Crawfordville): Karaoke with Mark. 9pm
  • El Patron: Pasion Latina. Bachata, Merengue, Salsa, Reggaeton. 9pm
  • 926 Lounge: Sanctuary: Tallahassee’s Longest Running Goth Night. 10pm/$5/18+
  • UU Church of Tallahassee: Transgender and Gender Non-conforming Cultural Competency. “UUCT is hosting a Transgender and Gender Non-conforming Cultural Competency and Inclusion Workshop, put on by Equality Florida’s TransAction Team. We would love to welcome any members, friends, and guests to participate in this free training.” 8:45am
  • Bookshelf 2: Wedding of Batman and Catwoman. “You are invited to witness the "Wedding of the Year". Batman and Catwoman will be joined in Holy Matrimony at the Bookshelf 2 on June 30th. Come dressed in your favorite cosplay/costumes and watch the ceremony, get pictures with the wedding party, have some cake at the reception. We'll also have some Bat-tastic sales afterwards.” 10am
  • Crawfordville: #FamilesBelongTogether Protest at ICE Detention Center. “Donald Trump and his administration are cruelly separating children from their families. But we won't allow it to continue. On June 30, we're rallying around the country and in Washington, D.C., to tell Donald Trump and his administration to stop separating kids from their parents! Trump and his administration have been systematically criminalizing immigration and immigrants, from revoking Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) to ramping up intimidating ICE tactics. Pledge to take action on June 30! Rally at the Wakulla ICE Detention Center! Let's send a clear message to Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress: Families Belong Together.” Noon
  • Cap City Video Lounge: Summer Of '98 Movie Marathon featuring Mulan, Truman Show, There's Something About Mary, Bulworth, The X-Files: Fight the Future, Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas, Pi. Noon-1am
  • Capitol Building: Family Separation Protest at Florida Capitol. “On June 30th, in conjunction with the national protest at the White House we will host a protest to tell Donald Trump and his administration to stop separating kids from their parents! Families belong together. The attack on immigrant families needs to end now.” 5pm
  • Hurricane Grill and Wings: Six String South. 6pm
  • Blue Tavern: Happy Hour with The Folkies: Brooke & Michael. 6pm
  • Tiger Rock Martial Arts: Nerf Blaster Wars. “For the first time ever, Tiger Rock Martial Arts is hosting a black light, Nerf party and it is going to be EPIC! Darts will glow, your kids will glow, and even the court will glow.” 6pm
  • American Legion Hall: Wakulla Rising CD Release Party. 7pm
  • Tallahassee Junior Museum: Night Prowl. “Enjoy a guided tour at the Tallahassee Museum and learn about the night life along the Florida Wildlife Trail. Your guide will provide an enjoyable experience as you spot the many nocturnal animals which call the Museum home. You will also have an opportunity to get close to one special night creature.” 7pm
  • Fat Cat Café: Movie Night featuring KiKi's Delivery Service. 7pm
  • The Saloon at the Pavilion: Nashville Nights with musical guest Houston Deese and Eric and Ben from the Tobacco Rd Band! (Line dancing.) 7pm
  • Blue Tavern: They Came From The Same! “Kelly Goddard and Brian Durham, two thirds of the local Americana band The New 76ers, will trade songs and stories for an evening of incredible music – enjoy the sibling harmony singing that makes 76ers' sound so special!” 8pm/$5
  • Warrior on the River: Girls Night Out, The Show. (Male strippers.) 8pm
  • Junction @ Monroe: South Munroe with Bill Pandolfi and Avis Berry. 8pm
  • The Wilbury: Anna Griffith, Group Dating (note: pretty sure that is the name of a band). 8pm/free
  • Fifth & Thomas: Top Shelf Band. 9:30pm
SUNDAY 7/1
  • Athena’s Garden: Herb Class. 2pm
  • The Junction @ Monroe: Sunday Afternoon Bingo. “This isn't your grandma's bingo! We have a blast with some very cool folks. Cash prizes.” 5pm
  • Salty Dawg Pub & Deli: The Famous Acoustic Jam w/ Wayne, Glenn, and Bo. Open mic, free beer for performers. 6pm
  • Cancuns: Reggae Sunday. 6pm
  • Finnegan’s Wake: Irish Music Session. 7pm
  • 926: Sunday Rewind. “Your favorite songs and videos are back again this Sunday at 926 with no cover before midnight!!! 926 is proud to present another addition of the Sunday Rewind - join us as we revisit some of the best music and videos from the last 40 years. Start your night with happy hour featuring Trivia Rewind with Erik from 7 to 9 in the pub. The club side opens up at 10 when DJ Matthew East and VJ Carben will be spinning all your favorite hits and videos from the 80s, 90s and 2000s even throwing in a few from the 70s as well. Rebecca and Branden will be serving up all your favorite drinks along with our amazing 926 food.” 7pm/No cover if you are in line before 12. After 12, cover is just $5 for 18+
  • Birds: Sunday Funnies Free Comedy Show. 7:30pm
  • Finnegan’s Wake: 1st Sunday - Bluegrass Jam. 7pm
MONDAY 7/2
  • Junction @ Monroe: Monday Night Bingo. “Good food, good drinks, good friends, and a chance to win some big cashola! It doesn't get any better than [email protected]. Every Monday from 7pm-9pm we've got cash payouts up to $250 per game with multiple games each night PLUS a 50/50 drawing each week benefitting the Tallahassee Area Musicians Guild.” 7pm-9pm
  • Lofty Pursuits: Game Night. 7pm
  • Hobbit American Grill West: Quiz Night from Bar Trivia With Hank. “They got wings, they got beer, and now they have great trivia. Come on out to a new night!” 7pm
  • Blue Tavern (N Monroe St): Lost Mondays hosted by Belmont & Jones. “Antique blues played acoustical.” 8pm/$2
  • Waterworks: Patio Theater. 7:35pm/21+
  • Finnegan’s Irish Pub: Karaoke with DJ Paul Cornish and Hospitality Night. “If you're a hospitality worker, don't forget to bring your most recent paystub or work schedule to receive that sweet 25% discount!” 10pm
submitted by clearliquidclearjar to Tallahassee [link] [comments]

[OT]Ask Nate: Field Manual FM-02W SciFi Military Fiction

    Field Manual FM-02W

       SciFi Military Fiction

 
"What a gang of apes! Maybe if you'd all buy it this drop, they could start over and build the kind of outfit the Lieutenant expected you to be."      - Career Ship's Sergeant Jelal Starship Troopers 1959. Robert A. Heinlein
 

Intro

     Before we get started here, I want to send a huge shoutout to everyone who participated in FM-01W. Especially, WarriorPoet02 who has a in-depth knowledge of both modern and historical combat, as well as a validated expert (with actual experience) in modern Marine Combat. He was able to fill in some gaps in my knowledge and even I learned some stuff. On that point, while I may have a wide-range of general knowledge, I'm not an expert in things I'm not an expert in. Don't ever be afraid, no matter how much you think you know, to consult others. You can always learn more.
     Time for Hot Shots: Part Deux; SciFi. As for the quote, it comes from one of my all-time favorite SciFi MilFic books; which was turned into a campy movie that pretty much only shares the same title. The book itself was once on the Commandant of the Marine Corps reading list, because despite being an old SciFi action romp; there are a number of deep reflective themes in the book that transcended genera fiction. Themes that did not make it to the film. Neither did their awesome power armor.
     Enough about Starship Troopers. What am I going to cover here today? This guide and the Fantasy one are designed more to provoke inspiration and creativity, rather than to give you established precedent. These are just my recommendations, so feel free to pick and choose what you want. SciFi and Fantasy universes have their own rules, just stay consistent. I'll tell you how I (and a few others) have gone about using existing military concepts and apply them to straight up fiction. And remember, no matter how cool your tech is, the best stories are always about the people and their struggles.
 

Frame the Universe

     Before you take your first step out that airlock, you need to decide what your restrictions are. Unlike the other three guides which are locked to a single planet (Earth or your Fantasy world, don't make me go down a magic portal rabbit hole for other worlds there...) SciFi is usually out in space. But not always.
     Why is there conflict? You can write SciFi all day without political conflict (personal conflict, not so much). But military SciFi needs an excuse to break out diplomacy through other means. Just having a squad run around breaking sh*t and engineering chaos, while exciting, isn't very interesting. Who are your aggressors and why? Develop the reasons, they tend to make for a better read than just blatant xenophobia. Old Man's War has some interesting angles to this regard. I'm sure you can all cite a few more (Dune, also comes to mind).
     And as goes with all stories, your characters need to be relatable. So if you have no humans, there better be some threads you can attach to as a reader.
 

Force Building

It's like world building, but for the military.
Me, I like to ground things in a heritage of the existing. Why? Because it's what humans do, either because of heritage, relatability, or because we aren't very original. This is more relevant (I feel) in SciFi based off human futures (moreso than let's say High Fantasy), deviate accordingly.
Rank and Structure      Most of the best SciFi/Fantasy militaries are based on real world examples. Yes, you can start from scratch and create completely alien military structures. However, the more off-the-beaten-path you go, the harder it will be for the reader to relate to and follow. As much fun as it is to create a 27-tiered rank structure of a thirty-seven layered hierarchy, your readers aren't going to be able to keep track without constantly referring back to the 30-page appendix in the back of your novel.
So… Kreckel Jip Paccku of the 4th Gregglan Raggers… ok so a Kreckl outranks a Jiggag, but not a Opperg. And a Ragger unit is bigger than the J'hest, but subordinate to the Max Headroom?
     Yeah, confusing as hell without constant references. Titles like "Lord Imperator" or "Knight Commander" might not be modern ranks, but at least make enough sense for someone with an average IQ to follow. This is why you generally see authors stick to basic concepts of Private, Corporal, Sergeant, Lieutenant in their works. It's not just that future military concepts are rooted in history, it's that the reader has to follow it.
     Is it ok to make up new unit types and ranks? Sure, just be careful not to make it insanely confusing. I have a universe where I replaced line company Captain (O-3) with a rank called "Aegis". It's the same rank, I just did away with the confusion created by also having ship "Captains" (O-6). The other officer ranks mostly follow the traditional Marine/Navy structure. (Ignore the two "non-combat" columns on the right.) This problem actually exists in our own military, though it seldom causes any actual problems. Navy Captains out rank Army, Air Force, and Marine Captains by three levels.
Navy or AirForce?      Who took the lead? In SG-1, it was the Air Force, so they were very focused around their behavior and structure (though the other US DoD branches and Russians were also in the picture). In many SciFi tales they try to shape their fleets around Naval traditions. Feel free to blend/meld them… just try not to be too confusing.
Mega-Stupendo Heroes      Is your MC overpowered? Overtrained? Do it, don't do it, I don't care. But seriously, be careful with it if you do. Master Chief is a great video game character whose story became relatable because he struggles with his humanity. Having said be cautious of making super soldiers, I've done it myself. Yet, they too struggle with what it means to be human and are vulnerable at the loss of those around them.
     I actually started this point to ponder on an old scifi show Space: Above and Beyond which struggled to try and stay "realistic". Real pilots take years to train. Typical pilots hit the fleet as senior First Lieutenants who're about to be promoted to Captain. You don't risk all that training sending pilots on infantry missions. The show did that a number of times. There were other weak plots I caught watching it as an adult who had served, that never dawned on me as a kid. (I still enjoy the hell out of S:AAB.) Yes, your MC might be an elite, super warrior… but there better be logical explanations for why before you end up with a magic Mary/Marty Sue.
Warrior Generals      I suppose this largely depends on the universe you build out, but even some of the most hardcore modern Generals don't see frontline combat. In the real world, you'd be lucky to see anyone above a Major on the ground/in the fight or a LtCol/Commander in the sky trading shots with the enemy. You tend to trade rank for boring desk jobs and rear-echelon leadership roles. The "warrior general" is really something of the bygone era and has more of a place in Fantasy, than SciFi. That's not to say the rules of your force can't dictate that, just be mindful. In Starship Troopers, everyone dropped and everyone fought. Pretty sure one of the big Generals bought it in a bug fight too.
 

Technology

      War, in the most extremely basic mathematical approach, is all about rendering more of the enemy combat ineffective than they can inflict similarly on to you. Conflict is all about the 5 D's: Defend, Delay, Disrupt, Destroy, or Divert. Technology has evolved over time to do those five things. I'll cover a handful of popular concepts, but this isn't even close to the full list.
Space Battles      Massive fleets of capital ships and squadrons of fighters are often woven into the fabric of an epic space opera. So how does one describe this dance of behemoths?
     Scarecrowsid, also pointed out: Using Navy structure as a base, the value of studying the ways in which a CIC and Bridge operate can have a significant effect on how battle sequences play out in Ship to Ship combat. There are a number of options here, but to name a few:
Drone warfare      On the note of space battles and the argument for human pilots vs drones: Light has a current finite speed. 299,792 kilometers per second. We'll assume no one is jamming your comms. That's still millisecond lag in close engagements. We put current drone operators as near as we can to avoid lag in terrestrial situations. Even then you get some lag. Not just data travel, it's processing too. I can't go into actual lag times or the differences in responsiveness for drone operators in CONUS vice in Theater (not only because it's likely classified, but because I don't know the details other than it exists). These are drones not engaged in 1-on-1 sorties. So imagine in your space combat drone vs piloted and how the signal-decision-command-execute delay is for a live pilot vs a drone that is getting further and further from the base station. If you have pushed the magic insta-communications "I believe" button, then go ahead…
Communications      Back to the speed of light… physics is a bitch. Ok, we can assume even in an FTL world, light still takes time to travel. Some EU gets around this a number of ways.
Power ArmoMECHs      I enjoy a nice suit (the HIMYM/Avengers gag was brought to you by MajorParadox). The US military is currently working on a few prototypes, but the biggest hangup is still power. It will likely continue to be a problem for the near future before we see Space Marines dropping on us. But this is your Nuka-Cola™ powered future. Bring on the Jeagers, Power Armor, and Battlemechs. Things you might want to toy with are scale issues (stepping on friendly forces), power (might still run out of those Fusion Cores), Ammo (it's still gonna run out), crossing large swaths of terrain (are you limited to human running speed, there still is a human in that suit), and the shortcomings of human anatomy (there still are restrictions on how much punishment a body can take even in the nicest padded cell and a body has to fit into the armor somehow).
Superweapons      I'll show you my Galaxy Gun if you let me see your Death Stars. (I'm already ashamed at that joke.) Yes, superweapons are a trope. As are the: Lost Superweapon, Forgotten Superweapon, Superweapon Surprise, and the Ancestral Weapon. I'd say not to, but the Mouse now owns an entertainment Empire born on the back of them. My advice…make sure your thermal exhaust port isn’t showing. (cringes) Ok, bad jokes aside; if you want to go the superweapon route, don't build me a third Death Star (cough, cough JJ?). What do I mean? Get to it, fight it, but don't dwell on it forever. (Seriously, don't spend pages on building it for me.)
Robotics      I actually was going to skip this for the sake of running long, but two of the reviewers pointed out it would be a good topic to cover. Macro and micro (regular and nano?) robots are likely to be a large part of space exploration since humans are fragile (we squish good) and take a lot of logistics to support. Human-sized or larger combat troops might just be the answer. On the other hand, smaller nanobots might be used for repairs/construction or in a swarm/cloud attack approach.
     (Will insert quote here if permission is given, don't like using people's words without their consent.) The gist of the argument made, however, is that continued human combat would be unlikely given a robust AI robo-troop force.
     It's a valid point. I could see it go a few ways as a story teller:
  1. You could write from a sentient AI robot perspective and keep to the above ConOps
  2. You could be one of the Robot Handlers. A commander of robotroops.
  3. Your society banned AI after a Terminator-like Rise of the Machines, so only basic (or no) robots are assisting humans in space.
     Also, from my buddy /Merklynn:
I'd throw Phillip K. Dick's short story "Second Variety" into the discussion. It's focus on a post-apocalyptic Earth, where a small rabble of surviving military from both sides try to rendezvous for a truce while avoiding the lethal "claws", disguised AGI killing machines, is about as close as I've seen PKD come to military sci-fi. The story isn't pure military sci-fi, but it is one of the earliest examples I can think of in which artificial intelligence has gone out of control, infiltrated humanity and constantly upgrading itself, making a terrifying enemy. The 1995 film adaptation Screamers is hit and miss, but the surviving enemy units being forced together and dealing with a total loss of communication with their superiors on Earth is one of the most compelling things about the story for me.
 
     Stuff I didn't cover: killer robots, nanobots, superviri, cyborgs, and more… I'd be here all week.
 

Battlespace

     Alright, back to your combat. So now you have your universe, how are you going to play in your sandbox? A lot of the stuff covered in the previous guide still applies (make sure to skim the comments of that guide for some great commentary on combat). Some additional things to consider:
 

BONUS: Mercs / Parma-Military Contractors

     penguinzeppelin asked me about Mercs. Well IRL, most Military Contractors (even the ones without guns) heavily draw from the retired/veteran pool. It's a steryotype for a reason. I would likely approach my characters as such, or conversely how difficult they had blending into a group of all vets -OR- as a company/grioup the hard time they had getting work without that on their CV.
     While entertainment media likes to portray corporate military orgs like crazy wildcards (yes, Blackwater was bad m-kay) the ones that don't adhere to strict business practices tend to flash and fade as they die the death of a million lawsuits. Blackwater did end up in very hot water.
     Mercs that don't have business acumen tend to become pirates, privateers, or freelancers at least in decent SciFi. Morals tend to get in the way (or become great story points). Is it a big team of hundreds and your MCs are just a small cog in the wheel (maybe they break off and go it alone)? Are they a small (12 or less) team that does independent contractor work? Do they look for a specific type of work that suits their personalities or are they so desperate for work that anything goes?
Big Orgs
Small Orgs
Again, this "article" is more designed to generate ideas and concepts to be applied to the normal rules of good story telling.
Questions, Comments, Complaints for your Congressman?
Ask your questions and I will get to them as soon as my day allows. Everyone is encouraged to participate and share your own thoughts. This is an open discussion. If people bring up good points, I will edit this accordingly. Also feel free to list your favorite SciFi military books, shows, etc in the comments.
the Military Fiction (MilFic) Field Manuals FM-01W - Modern Military Fiction FM-02W - SciFi Military Fiction - (this guide) FM-03W - Fantasy Military Fiction (High and Low) - TBD FM-04W - Historical Military Fiction - TBD – Will cover ancient armies (Roman/Egyptian) up to early-Industrial/pre-WWI
submitted by Nate_Parker to WritingPrompts [link] [comments]

Izumi3682 Archives

Gene therapy treatment for blood disease approved in Europe by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 3 months ago
Why is the guy's skin in the picture green like that? I think that communicates the wrong impression, like you start to turn into "the Hulk" too or you have to get stem cells from "the Hulk" or something. I mean he is not full "Hulk" yet, but he definitely looks like he is starting to turn into him for sure. Like maybe it is a side effect.
I find it interesting and a bit unsettling how China (PRC) was the first to attempt this form of CRISPR-Cas9 treatment. As a direct result of the world wide knowledge of what China was doing, a universal moratorium http://www.crisprupdate.com/scientists-seek-moratorium-on-edits-to-human-genome-that-could-be-inherited/ was instituted to keep that kind of experimentation from proceeding. In a word the West was "alarmed".
Now I see what is happening and it makes perfect sense to me. You keep up with China, or you get "disrupted".
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Where is Augmented and Virtual Reality Technology Headed? by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 2 points 3 months ago
That's right by golly!
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/7r42h0/vr_is_going_to_be_like_nothing_the_world_has_eve
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CRISPR-Cas9 Improved 10,000-Fold by Synthetic Nucleotides by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 2 points 3 months ago
I thought CRISPR-Cas9 was already right specific. Can someone ELI5 how a ten thousand fold improvement in specificity will enable us to defeat all congenital conditions. And probably all pathologies too I suppose.
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Double beds and urinals at 35,000 feet – introducing the aircraft interiors of the future by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 3 months ago
Interesting. I wonder which it is going to be now. Rockets that get us anywhere on Earth in like 30 minutes or luxury 16 hour totally VR enabled flights for coach passengers.
Vision of rockets for Earth travel:
https://www.recode.net/2018/4/11/17227036/flight-spacex-gwynne-shotwell-space-ted-conference-interview
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AI must be 'for common good' by Benjaminsen in Futurology


[–]izumi3682 1 point 3 months ago
I think you are thinking too locally and limitedly as well. Pull back your view.
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/6zu9yo/in_the_age_of_ai_we_shouldnt_measure_success/dmy1qed/
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Will technology ever allow people to experience specific mental fantasies via virtual reality? by infin8ty in Futurology


[–]izumi3682 2 points 3 months ago
Consider the Wright Brother's "aeroplane". Then think of today's modern aircraft. The VR we have right now is a Wright craft. VR and our minds will surely join.
Try the "red pill" ;)
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/7r42h0/vr_is_going_to_be_like_nothing_the_world_has_eve
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NIST's new quantum method generates really random numbers by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 3 months ago
Is this a step closer to a quantum computer being capable of more general purpose computing? For example in 1945 we used binary computers for extremely limited applications. The only application I am aware of from 1945 was using binary computers to calculate artillery trajectories. Is something like that analogous to "optimization"?
Getting from calculating artillery trajectories to doing everything we do today was not a one year process. Tons of insights, innovations and discoveries accompanied that. I remember making Christmas wreaths out of old punchcards when I was a Cub Scout. Then we would get to spray paint them gold or green. The effect was fairly impressive. Somebody got a ton of them from somewhere. But can we extrapolate that kind of progress (at a potentially much faster rate) with the implementation of quantum computers?
Is it likely that humans will learn how to use quantum computers in the same manner that we use binary computers today? Perhaps quantum computers will simply "transcend" (replace) binary computers? Or will we forever be hobbled by having to use binary computers with quantum computers as some kind of piggyback enhancement. Or will they forever stay two separate tracks. Granted, an "exa-scale" supercomputer or whatever comes after an "exa" computer would be pretty insane in it's own right I imagine.
I need to know all this and how ballpark soon, because it is important to my ascension to the realm of umm... "Dark Overlord of the Universe". (Yes, I got that from "Howard the Duck", but honestly, the intent is still accurately described.) What. We all have our own personal aspirations I'm sure. Now you know mine.
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Peptide-based biogenic dental product may cure cavities by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 5 points 3 months ago
Important takeaway:
The peptide-enabled technology allows the deposition of 10 to 50 micrometers of new enamel on the teeth after each use. Once fully developed, the technology can be used in both private and public health settings, in biomimetic toothpaste, gels, solutions and composites as a safe alternative to existing dental procedures and treatments.
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Will Self-Driving Cars End The Big Automakers? by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 2 points 3 months ago
That's a generational attitude. In 1898 very few humans trusted the internal combustion engine over the reliable and easily controlled horse. But by 1908 horses were already beginning to disappear. By 1922 horses were very rare on New York City thoroughfares. Progress marches on.
You don't trust SDVs, but a child of say, age 2, that grows up in today's world will never have known a world without SDVs, AI, VR, and human robots walking around like it's no big deal.
For me at age 57, it is super important for me to keep my optimistic and somewhat irrationally exuberant outlook. I will fully trust level 5 autonomy SDVs when they do arrive in the next year or so.
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Will Self-Driving Cars End The Big Automakers? by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 3 months ago
I think level 5 autonomy SDVs will end a business model that is over 100 years in existence. Namely personal ownership. I'm positive that once humans see how awesome it is to get a car within a few minutes of calling for one, they will never look back. No car insurance, no maintenance. You can't keep your stuff in the car, but you would have no desire to. Nor personalize. Private ownership will continue for a good while I'm sure, but humans will change to this new way very quickly I bet. Like in less than 10 years, easy.
I'm not sure how all the infrastructure will work with this, like keeping the car smelling nice and not be all gross and whatnot.
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Your fancy new car steers and brakes for you; so why keep your hands on the wheel? by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] -1 points 3 months ago
The concept is a simple one. Any vehicle from 0 to 4 autonomy requires a fully licensed driver who should at all times keep their hands on the wheel and feet close to the brakes or accelerator. A level 4 autonomy SDV is in my opinion, far more dangerous than a human driving a normal unenhanced car. The reason is that human will be asleep or too deeply engrossed to take over when the car senses imminent danger when the human must take over in seconds or less...
When you get into a level 5 autonomy SDV, you will see no steering wheel, brake or accelerator. You do not have to be a fully licensed driver to use a level 5 autonomy SDV.
The question is, are level 5 autonomy vehicles going to be released in the next year or two? If not, then we keep on with learning to drive, licensing and behaving as if you are the fully manual driver, despite the fact that you are falling asleep or tempted to watch a movie. You are responsible for what happens still.
I will trust a level 5 autonomy vehicle 100%. I will trust level 4 autonomy and below 100% only if the human driver is 100% in control at all times.
The most recent figure I have for human caused MVA deaths (in the USA) is 32,000 for the year 2016. Will we see the figure begin to decline in 2018? Will a level 2-4 autonomy vehicle modify these figures?
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Proscia is Fighting Cancer with Artificial Intelligence by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 2 points 3 months ago
Ultimately, though, Proscia is about more than placating scientists about robots taking their salaries. It’s about saving lives.
TL;DR Proscia is replacing technologists, scientists, even pathologists with narrow AI and automation.
Me: Why is anybody even surprised anymore? This is what narrow AI is really good at. AI never has a 'bad day".
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Atlantic Circulation Weakening: No, We’re Not All Gonna Die (I Mean, Not Because Of This)[sic] by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 3 months ago
I bet the UK gets a lot colder though. Isn't London close to the same latitude of Moscow? And I know it gets right cold in Moscow. Doesn't the Gulf Stream keep the UK pretty mild?
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NIST's new quantum method generates real random numbers by [deleted] in Futurology


[–]izumi3682 1 point 3 months ago
Is this a step closer to a quantum computer being capable of more general purpose computing? For example in 1945 we used binary computers for extremely limited applications. The only application I am aware of from 1945 was using binary computers to calculate artillery trajectories. Is something like that analogous to "optimization"?
Getting from calculating artillery trajectories to doing everything we do today was not a one year process. Tons of insights, innovations and discoveries accompanied that. I remember making Christmas wreaths out of old punchcards when I was a Cub Scout. Then we would get to spray paint them gold or green. The effect was fairly impressive. Somebody got a ton of them from somewhere. But can we extrapolate that kind of progress (at a potentially much faster rate) with the implementation of quantum computers?
Is it likely that humans will learn how to use quantum computers in the same manner that we use binary computers today? Perhaps quantum computers will simply "transcend" (replace) binary computers? Or will we forever be hobbled by having to use binary computers with quantum computers as some kind of piggyback enhancement. Or will they forever stay two tracks. Granted, an "exa-scale" supercomputer or whatever comes after an "exa" computer would be pretty insane in it's own right I imagine.
I need to know all this and how ballpark soon, because it is important to my ascension to the realm of umm... "Dark Overlord of the Universe". (Yes, I got that from "Howard the Duck", but honestly, the intent is still accurately described.) What. We all have our own personal aspirations I'm sure. Now you know mine.
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A virtual reality hand feels real after a zap to your brain by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 3 months ago
Well one of the things I say is that we will inevitably leave biology behind to get the VR worlds we want. So that idea is not so far fetched as you may think.
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/7r42h0/vr_is_going_to_be_like_nothing_the_world_has_eve
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Revolut CTO Reveals Why Cash Will Disappear Sooner Than You Think by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 0 points 3 months ago
Yes, I have often stated that the only way that UBI would ever truly work would be if I was the only one getting it. It would be such a tiny little tax on each human (apart from me) that people would scarce notice. I mean, don't tell anybody, they might get mad at me.
But if you start giving everybody UBI it would probably water it down so much that it would no longer be so helpful. (For me I mean.)
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A virtual reality hand feels real after a zap to your brain by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 5 points 3 months ago
Unfortunately it is going to take a lot of creative zapping of the human brain to bring taste and smell into VR worlds. Silly analogs like mouth pieces and packaged scents like banana are just not going to work.
Speaking of smell, let me relate something. I work in a outlying medical clinic. Every once in a while we get a patient that has a bad odor around them. Not BO so much as a horrible unwashed stench. One human can easily stink up a significant portion of the building. So I got to thinking--if we have VR zombies with VR zombie smell--I promise you, you will never be taken by surprise by a zombie like in "The Walking Dead". You will smell one coming a thousand feet away and if its a bunch of them? The odor would be overwhelming long before they came into view.
Anyway I'm just sayin'.
Now how on Earth we are going to make interfaces that allow us to experience "deepdive" VR or what VR derives into, I don't have a clue. But humans being humans we are going to do our darndest to see if we can recreate like "The Matrix". But even better. It will be our minds interfacing while we sit in a chair, like a lucid dream you can consciously control or something. Think "Black Mirror" 'USS Calister', but without the slave minds hopefully.
And the darndest thing is? We will succeed. And within 100 years easily.
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Revolut CTO Reveals Why Cash Will Disappear Sooner Than You Think by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 5 points 3 months ago
Cashless is not the answer. The answer is having a society where a medium of exchange is no longer necessary because pretty much everything is valueless and available to everyone for free. The concept of financial poverty should cease to have meaning. Pretty soon we will have the technology to do this, but it is hard to change a 6,000 year old habit. I may sound pie-in-the-sky unrealistic, but this is what much smarter humans than me are advocating, like Peter Diamandis.
Here is something that due to technology is going to lose value quickly.
https://www.sciencealert.com/how-artificial-diamonds-are-made-microwave-methane-gas-lab-ethical
I also suspect that vehicles will not for much longer be owned, but will be part of low price yearly subscription. The 99% will vote with their shrinking bank accounts. Sure this generation will resist, but children who are 2 years old today will embrace it as a natural thing. And laugh about the way we used to think. And how we would manually drive! OMG! :O
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How Will Merging Minds and Machines Change Our Conscious Experience? by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 5 points 3 months ago
That is not something we can imagine, little less comprehend in the year 2018. The reason the "technological singularity" is called a "singularity" is because just like our current understanding of physics breaks down and we can't model what happens within the singularity of a black hole, so too our understanding of what we would experience after the technological singularity is just as impossible to model.
We hope for the singularity to be as "human friendly" as possible. And I think we are now taking some steps in the right direction with developments like "NeuroLink" and methods of keeping the AI narrow, but joining it to our very minds in some kind of way. We would not, of course, be the same creatures after that in any event.
But the bottom line is this. The AI, in whatever form is not only an unstoppable juggernaut, but it is in effect becoming exponentially more powerful about every six months. And we can't put the cat back in the bag, even if we wanted to. We don't want to. Our science, technology and even economy is now too inextricably tied to the accelerating development of AI. Now I think it has come down to a race against time to get it right. 5 to 10 years.
Boy, talk about a filter...
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In Uber's Vision of the Future, Every Form of Transport Is Fair Game by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 0 points 3 months ago
Despite the recent tragedy in Arizona, Uber is not going away. They are deeply involved in the development of AI intrinsic to SDVs. I also admire their efforts to develop a sort of post-scarcity style subscription service that is low priced and highly dependable. Their ultimate goal is to ensure that any human that needs a ride somewhere can get one. Safely, effectively and most importantly for the vast majority of the 99%--cheaply.
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Here's the AI documentary Elon Musk thinks is essential viewing by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 0 points 3 months ago
Your link is gone now. At least for USA. But you are right. The sound does cut in and out on my link. Reminds me of my old "copy-guard" 1980's.
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Here's the AI documentary Elon Musk thinks is essential viewing by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 0 points 3 months ago
We have zero choice.
Either the AI remains external from us and becomes something very much akin to AGI, if not straight up AGI, not to mention the very real possibility of EI (emergent intelligence). This would quickly (within seconds) cause homo sapiens to be the secondary sentience on Earth. And by quite a wide margin to boot. Think humans vs. "archaea". It is a total 50/50 proposition if that would be heaven or hell. I wouldn't want to take the chance. What is terrifying to ponder is that this outcome is more than likely a natural phenomenon in the universe with any biology that can reach tool making sentience. We are simply in the "larval" stage of intelligence right now. This despite all of our Einstein and Hitler and Boyle's Law and the pyramids of Egypt and screamingly funny cat videos and The Beatles and climate change and 1970's television and the American Civil War or the English Civil War for that matter. It will all vanish in the new AI as if it never existed. After all do we care that much about the history and culture of "archaea"? Same difference.
The only realistic choice is that we continue to develop means for the human mind to gain access to what we hope remains narrow AI. I see that we are working to develop the so-called "NeuroLink" and that is a good step in the right direction. Every single human mind would have access not only to the sum total of human knowledge, but the ability to continuously gain information at a rate that is fully beyond our capacity in the year 2018 to fathom, little less understand. The outcome will be a human/AI sentience that may likely be something we would not recognize in any event. Still a "butterfly" from the larva. But at least humans would still be the primary sentience on Earth. Hopefully the AI still does not manage to control us. Nevertheless this option is still the only realistic one we have now.
I stated something that is based on what exactly is going on here earlier. Raymond Kurzweil is the proponent. I would say the chances are 90% that most humans do not understand what Raymond Kurzweil is proposing. Anyway here is the comment I made a while back if you are interested.
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/6zu9yo/in_the_age_of_ai_we_shouldnt_measure_success/dmy1qed/
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Here's the AI documentary Elon Musk thinks is essential viewing by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 4 points 3 months ago
I just watched this. It's absolutely superb. No futurist should miss this. I paid to permanently own the streaming video. You can also rent it, but i chose to own so i can show everyone. I am izumi3682. I'm the one that posted this link. I posted it before even watching the video, but when it said that Elon Musk--who also appears in it, was impressed, that impressed me too. This video is the honest and real deal right up to "Cambridge Analytica" today.
TL;DR : In as little as 5 years, but definitely not more than 10 years the AI will take over unless it is a part of us. The AI scientists in the video explain why this will be.
Maybe somebody can hack it and it will be on YouTube for free or something. I just consider myself an "early adopter" in that case. It should be on YouTube for free.
Oh well what do you know. I found a Russian hack on YouTube! I can't guarantee quality, but here it is. The video has been on YouTube for 5 days now. It may get removed, so see it quick! It is one hour and 18 minutes long. You won't be bored.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SghmYtar-OY
I just checked the YouTube video, the quality appears to be near perfect with 1080p rez and excellent sound on my pc anyways. I was stupid to spend 5.99, but that is ok. I just want to get the information out there.
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Leaked Tesla Image Reveals Full Self-Driving User Interface by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 5 points 3 months ago
This is the part I ate up! ;)
Musk told investors during the company’s fourth quarter earnings call in February that the artificial intelligence will work like other (AI) system(s) in that it will improve exponentially. Claiming that he’s “pretty excited about how much progress we’re making on the neural net front,” he said progress will “feel like, ‘well this is a lame driver, lame driver, well actually this is a pretty good driver, like holy cow this driver’s good.’”
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Supercomputer models cloud microphysics by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 3 months ago
When I come across articles like this. Articles that are about simulating this or that. Then I read other articles describing how incredible worlds that are rendered by Nvidia or Unreal Engine 4 are already.
I tend to extrapolate.
So in like about 50 years just think how those two technologies will have advanced. And then put something like VR with that. Today the VR is primitive, but I bet it will not be so primitive in 50 years.
I look at that simple videogame called "No Man's Sky". It actually was released about 2 years ago I think. The thing about that game is that it uses a surprisingly few laws of physics to procedurally generate a stupendous number of "visitable" worlds. The few laws of physics are so that things make sense. It probably does not even qualify as a proper simulation. I don't know how many worlds you can actually have in existence at one time, but in 50 years we will have the computing power and AI, probably AGI, to render something akin to a visitable galaxy. And then a full visitable universe in 100 or 200 more years. If we still care about that kind of thing I mean. God knows what the mixing of AI and the human mind will ultimately lead to.
submitted by izumi3682 to u/izumi3682 [link] [comments]

Perpetual Option: Och-Ziff Capital Management Group (OZM)

In his book, You Can Be a Stock Market Genius, Greenblatt talks about using LEAPs to make leveraged bets. The book included his trade in Wells Fargo (WFC, another topic for a future post, I suppose).
But sometimes, stocks get down so cheap that they become priced like options. In the Genius book, the WFC LEAPs were priced at $14 while the stock was at around $77.
Here, we have a hedge fund manager trading less than $3.00/share, which is a typical price for regular options, not even LEAPs. Of course, all stocks are options on the residual value of businesses. But sometimes things are priced for either a large gain or zero, just like an option.
I call this a perpetual option, but that reminds me of those lifetime warranties. Like, who's lifetime? The manufacturer's? The store's? Yours? Nothing is forever, so I guess there really is no such thing as a perpetual option. But anyway...
Och-Ziff IPO'ed in 2007 at $32/share and traded in the mid $20's right before the crisis, then down to below $5.00 during the crisis and back up to the mid-teens. I've been watching this since the IPO and looked at it again when it was trading around $10/share. It's down quite a bit since then. I didn't own it back then but I did take a small bite down at $5.00/share.
I have mentioned other private equity and hedge fund managers here in the past but haven't owned most of them because of the amount of money that seemed to be going into alternatives. I was just worried that the AUM's of all of these alternative managers were going up so quickly that I couldn't imagine them earning the high returns that made everyone rush to them in the first place. Look at the presentation of any of these alternative managers and their AUM growth is just staggering.
Extremely Contrarian We investors walk around and think about all sorts of things; look at store traffic, taste new foods/restaurant concepts, count how many Apple watches people are wearing (I recently biked around the city with my kid (Brooklyn to Central Park, around the park (around the big loop) and all the way downtown back to Brooklyn (30+ miles) and I think I counted two Apple watches that I saw compared to countless iPhones. And this was in the summer so no coats or long sleeves to hide wrists).
And a couple of the things that we tend to think about are, What does everybody absolutely love, and what are they 100% sure of (other than that Hillary will win the election and that the market will crash if Trump wins), and What do people absolutely, 100% hate and don't even want to talk about? In the investing world right now, it seems like the one thing that everybody seems to agree with is that active investing is dead (OK, not completely true because we active investors never really lose faith in it). The data points to it (active managers underperforming for many years, legendary stock pickers too not performing all too well, star hedge funds not doing well etc...). The money flows point to it (cash flowing out of active managers and into passive funds, boom in index funds / ETFs; this reminds me of the 1990's when there were more mutual funds than listed companies. There are probably more ETFs now than listed companies). Sentiment points to it (stars and heroes now are ETF managers, quants etc.).
By the Way Oh, and by the way, in case people say that it is no longer possible due to this or that reason for humans to outperform indices or robots, I would just say that we have seen this before. Things in finance are cyclical and we've seen this movie before.
From the 1985 Berkshire Hathaway Letter, Most institutional investors in the early 1970s, on the other hand, regarded business value as of only minor relevance when they were deciding the prices at which they would buy or sell. This now seems hard to believe. However, these institutions were then under the spell of academics at prestigious business schools who were preaching newly-fashioned theory: the stock market was totally efficient, and therefore calculations of business value -- and even thought, itself -- were of no importance in investment activities. (We are enormously indebted to those academics: what could be more advantageous in an intellectual contest -- whether it be bridge, chess or stock selection than to have opponents who have been taught that thinking is a waste of energy?)
What Do People Hate? So, back to what people absolutely hate. People hate active managers. It's not even stocks that they are not interested in. They hate active managers. Nobody outperforms and their fees are not worth it. What else do they hate? They hate hedge funds. I don't need to write a list here, but you just keep reading one institution after another reducing their exposure to hedge funds. There is a massive shakeout going on now with money leaving hedge funds. Others like Blackstone argues that this is not true; assets are just moving out of mediocre hedge funds and moving into theirs.
This is a theme I will be going back to in later posts, but for now I am just going to look at OZM.
OZM OZM is a well-known hedge fund firm so I won't go into much detail here. To me, it's sort of a conventional equity-oriented hedge fund that runs strategies very typical of pre-Volcker rule Wall Street investment banks; equity long/short, merger arb, convertible arb etc. They have been expanding into credit and real estate with decent results. But a lot of their AUM is still in the conventional equity strategies.
What makes OZM interesting now is that chart from the Pzena Investment report (see here). These charts make it obvious why active managers have had such a hard time. The value spread has just continued to widen since 2004/2005 through now. Cheap stocks get cheaper and expensive stocks get more so. You can see how this sort of environment could be the worst for long/short strategies (and value-oriented long strategies, and even naked short strategies for that matter). Things have just been going the wrong way with no mean reversion.
But if you look at where those charts are now, you can see that it is probably exactly the wrong time to give up on value strategies or value-based long/short strategies; in fact it looks like the best time ever to be looking at these strategies.
Seeing that, does it surprise me that many pension funds are running the other way? Not at all. Many large institutions chase performance and not future potential.
Conceptually speaking, they would rather buy a stock at 80x P/E that has gone up 30%/year in the past five years that is about to tank rather than buy an 8x P/E stock that has gone nowhere in the past five years but is about to take off; they are driven by historic (or recent historic) performance.
OZM Performance Anyway, let's look at the long term performance of OZM. This excludes their credit and real estate funds which are doing much better and are growing AUM.
This is their performance since 1994 through the end of 2015:
OZM fund S&P500 1994 28.50% 5.30% 1995 23.50% 27.40% 1996 27.40% 23.00% 1997 26.70% 33.40% 1998 11.10% 28.60% 1999 18.80% 21.00% 2000 20.60% -9.10% 2001 6.30% -11.90% 2002 -1.60% -22.10% 2003 24.00% 28.70% 2004 11.10% 10.90% 2005 8.80% 4.90% 2006 14.80% 15.80% 2007 11.50% 5.50% 2008 -15.90% -37.00% 2009 23.10% 26.50% 2010 8.50% 15.10% 2011 -0.50% 2.10% 2012 11.60% 16.00% 2013 13.90% 32.40% 2014 5.50% 13.70% 2015 -0.40% 1.40% 5 year avg 5.85% 12.57% 10 year avg 6.69% 7.32% Since 1994 12.05% 8.87% Since 2000 7.59% 5.01% Since 2007 5.14% 6.53%
So they have not been doing too well, but it's really only the last couple of years that don't look too good. Their ten-year return through 2013 was +8.2%/year versus +7.4%/year for the S&P 500 index. It's pretty obvious that their alpha has been declining over time.
For those who want more up-to-date figures, I redid the above table to include figures through September-end 2016. And instead of 5 year and 10 year returns, I use 4.75-year and 9.75-year returns; I thought that would be more comparable than saying 5.75-year and 10.75-year, and I didn't want to dig into quarterly figures to get actual 5 and 10s.
OZM fund S&P500 1994 28.50% 5.30% 1995 23.50% 27.40% 1996 27.40% 23.00% 1997 26.70% 33.40% 1998 11.10% 28.60% 1999 18.80% 21.00% 2000 20.60% -9.10% 2001 6.30% -11.90% 2002 -1.60% -22.10% 2003 24.00% 28.70% 2004 11.10% 10.90% 2005 8.80% 4.90% 2006 14.80% 15.80% 2007 11.50% 5.50% 2008 -15.90% -37.00% 2009 23.10% 26.50% 2010 8.50% 15.10% 2011 -0.50% 2.10% 2012 11.60% 16.00% 2013 13.90% 32.40% 2014 5.50% 13.70% 2015 -0.40% 1.40% 2016* 1.10% 7.80% 4.75 year 6.53% 14.58% 9.75 year 5.48% 6.72% Since 1994 11.68% 8.92% Since 2000 7.29% 5.27% Since 2007 4.82% 6.86%
So over time, they have good outperformance, but much of that is from the early years. As they get bigger, it's not hard to see why their spread would shrink.
They are seriously underperforming in the 4.75 year, but that's because the S&P 500 index was coming off of a big bear market low and OZM didn't lose that much money, so I think that is irrelevant, especially for a long/short fund.
More relevant would be figures from recent market peaks which sort of shows a through-the-cycle performance. Since the market peak in 2000, OZM has outperformed with a gain of +7.3%/year versus +5.3%/year for the S&P, but they have underperformed since the 2007 peak. A lot of this probably has to do with the previous charts about how value spreads have widened throughout this period.
I would actually want to be increasing exposure to this area that hasn't worked well since 2007. Some of this, of course, is due to lower interest rates. Merger arb, for example, is highly dependent on interest rates as are other arbitrage type trades. (The less risk there is, the closer to the short term interest rate the return is going to be.)
One thing that makes me scratch my head, though, in the 3Q 2016 10-Q is the following: OZ Master Fund’s merger arbitrage, convertible and derivative arbitrage, corporate credit and structured credit strategies have each generated strong year-to-date gains through September 30, 2016. In merger arbitrage, certain transactions in which OZ Master Fund participated closed during the third quarter, contributing to the strategy’s year-to-date gross return of +1.3%. Convertible and derivative arbitrage generated a gross return of +0.5% during the third quarter, driven by gains in convertible arbitrage positions, commodity-related volatility, commodity spreads and index volatility spread trades. Year-to-date, convertible and derivative arbitrage has generated a gross return of +1.3%. In OZ Master Fund’s credit-related strategies, widening credit spreads and certain event-driven situations added +0.4% to the gross return within corporate credit during the third quarter, while in structured credit, a +0.9% gross return during the quarter was attributable to the realization of recoveries in certain of our idiosyncratic situations. Year-to-date, the corporate credit and structured credit strategies are each up +1.2% on a gross basis. Gross returns of less than 2% are described as "strong". Hmm... I may be missing something here. Maybe it is 'strong' versus comparable strategies. I don't know. Anyway, moving on...
Greenblatt Genius Strategies Oh yeah, and by the way, OZM is one of the funds that are heavily into the yellow book strategies. Here's a description of their equity long/short strategy: Long/short equity special situations, which consists of fundamental long/short and event-driven investing. Fundamental long/short investing involves analyzing companies and assets to profit where we believe mispricing or undervaluation exists. Event-driven investing attempts to realize gain from corporate events such as spin-offs, recapitalizations and other corporate restructurings, whether company specific or due to industry or economic conditions.
This is still a large part of their book, which is a good thing if you believe that the valuation spreads will mean revert and that Greenblatt's yellow book strategies are still valid.
One thing that may temper returns over time, though, is the AUM level. What you can do with $1 billion in AUM is not the same as when you have $10 billion or $30 billion. I don't think Greenblatt would have had such high returns if he let AUM grow too much.
This seems to be an issue with a lot of hedge funds. Many of the old stars who were able to make insane returns with AUM under $1 billion seem to have much lower returns above that level.
Here is OZM's AUM trend in the past ten years. Some of the lower return may correlate to the higher AUM, not to mention higher AUM at other hedge funds too reducing spreads (and potential profits).
Just to refresh my memory, I grabbed the AUM chart from the OZM prospectus in 2007. Their AUM was under $6 billion until the end of 2003 and then really grew to over $30 billion by 2007.
Their 10-year return through 2003 was 18%/year vs. 10.6%/year for the S&P 500 index.
From the end of 2003 through the end of 2015, OZM's funds returned +7.2%/year versus +7.4%/year for the S&P 500 index. So their alpha basically went from 7.4%/year outperformance to flat.
This is actually not so bad as these types of funds often offered 'equity-like' returns with lower volatility and drawdowns. The long/short nature of OZM funds means that investors achieved the same returns as the S&P 500 index without the full downside exposure. This is exactly what many institutions want, actually.
But still, did their growth in AUM dampen returns? I think there is no doubt about that. These charts showing tremendous AUM growth is the reason why I never owned much of these alternative managers in the past few years I've been watching them.
The question is how much of the lower returns are due to the higher AUM. Of course, some of this AUM growth is in other strategies so not all new AUM is squeezed into the same strategies.
Will OZM ever go back to the returns of the 1990's? I doubt that. First of all, that was a tremendous bull market. Plus, OZM's AUM was much smaller so they had more opportunities to take advantage of yellow book ideas and other strategies.
Boom/Bubble Doesn't Mean It's a Bad Idea By the way, another sort of tangent. Just because there is a big boom or bubble in something doesn't necessarily make that 'something' a bad idea. We had a stock market bubble in the late 1920's that ended badly, but owning parts of businesses never suddenly became a bad idea or anything. It's just that you didn't want to overpay, or buy stocks for the wrong reasons.
We had a boom in the late 1990's in stocks that focused on picking stocks and owning them for the long term as exemplified by the Beardstown Ladies. Of course, the Beardstown Ladies didn't end well (basically a fraud), but owning good stocks for the long haul, I don't think, ever became a bad idea necessarily.
We had a tremendous housing bubble and various real estate bubbles in recent years. But again, owning good, solid assets at reasonable prices for the long haul never became a bad idea despite the occasional bubbles and collapses.
Similarly, hedge funds and alternative assets go through cycles too. I know many value investors are not with me here and will always hate hedge funds (like Buffett), but that's OK.
We've had alternative cycles in the past. Usually the pattern is that there is a bull market in stocks and people rush into stocks. The bull market inevitably ends and people lose money. Institutions not wanting to lose money rush into 'alternative' assets. Eventually, the market turns and they rush back into equities.
I think something similar is happening now, but the cycle seems a bit elongated and, and the low interest rates is having an effect as alternatives are now attracting capital formerly allocated to fixed income. In the past, alternatives seemed more like an equity substitution, risk asset.
Valuation OK, so what is OZM worth?
Well, a simple way of looking at it is that OZM has paid an average of $1.10/year in dividends in the last five years. During the past five years, the funds returned around 6%/year, so it's not an upside outlier in terms of fund performance.
Put a 10x multiple on it and the stock is worth $11/share.
Another way to look at it is that the market is telling you that it is unlikely that OZM will enjoy the success even of the past five years over the next few years. Assuming a scenario of failure (stock price = 0) or back to sort of past five years performance ($11), a $3.00 stock price reflects the odds of failure at 73% and only a 27% chance that OZM gets back to it's past five year average-like performance. Of course, OZM can just sort of keep doing what it's doing and stay at $3.00 for a long time too.
There is a problem with this, though, as the dividends don't reflect equity-based compensation expense; OZM gives out a bunch of RSU's every year.
To adjust for this, let's look at the economic earnings of the past five years including the costs of equity-based compensation.
Equity-based compensation expense not included in economic income is listed below ($000):
2008 102,025 2009 122,461 2010 128,737 2011 128,916 2012 86,006 2013 120,125 2014 104,344 2015 106,565
It's odd that this doesn't seem to correlate to revenues, income or AUM; it's just basically flat all the way through.
If we include this, economic income at OZM averaged around $520 million/year. With fully diluted 520 million shares outstanding, that's around $1.00/share in economic earnings per share that OZM earned on average over the past five years. So that's not too far off from the $1.10/share dividends we used above.
One of the interesting things about investing is when you find alternative ways to value something instead of just the usual price-to-book values, P/E ratios etc.
So how would you value this?
What about adjusting the implied odds from the above. What if we said there's a 50/50 chance of recovery or failure. Let's say recovery is getting back to what it has done over the past five years on average, and failure is a zero on the stock.
50% x $0.00 + 50% x $10.00 = $5.00/share
In that case, OZM is worth $5.00/share, or 70% higher than the current price. You are looking at a 60 cent dollar in that case.
Let's say there is a 70% chance of recovery.
70% x $10.00 + 30% x $0.00 = $7.00/share.
That's 130% higher, or a 40 cent dollar.
By the way, the AUM averaged around $37 billion over the past five years, and remember, their return was around 5.9%/year so these figures aren't based on huge, abnormal returns or anything.
As of the end of September 2016, AUM was $39.3 billion, and this went down to $37 billion as of November 1, 2016. OZM expects continued redemptions towards year-end both due to their Justice Department/SEC settlement and overall industry redemption trends.
The above ignored balance sheet items, but you can deduct $0.60/share, maybe, of negative equity, or more if you think they need more cash on the balance sheet to run their business.
Preferred Shares As for the $400 million settlement amount and preferred shares, the settlement amount is already on the balance sheet as a liability (which was paid out after the September quarter-end). The preferred shares were sold after the quarter ended. They have zero interest for three years so I don't think it impacts the above analysis. You would just add cash on the balance sheet and the preferreds on the liability side.
If you want to deduct the full amount of the settlement of $400 million, you can knock off $0.77/share off the above valuation instead of the $0.60/share.
Earnings Model The problem with these companies is that it's impossible, really, to predict what their AUM is going to be in the future or their performance. Of course, we can guess that if they do well, AUM will increase and vice-versa.
But still, as a sanity check, we should see how things look with various assumptions in terms of valuation.
First of all, let's look at 2015. In the full year to 2015, a year that the OZM funds were down (master fund), they paid a dividend of $0.87. Adjusted economic income was $240 million (economic income reported by OZM less equity-based comp expense) and using the current fully diluted shares outstanding of 520 million, that comes to $0.46/share. OK, it's funny to use current shares outstanding against last year's economic income, but I am trying to use last years' earnings as sort of a 'normalized' figure.
Using these figures from a bad year, OZM is current trading at a 29% dividend yield (using $3.00/share price) and 6.5x adjusted economic income. This would be 8.3x if you added the $0.77/share from the settlement above.
OK, so average AUM was $44 billion in 2015, so even in a bad year, they made tons in management fees. Fine. We'll get to that in a second. AUM is $37 billion as of November 2016, and is probably headed down towards year-end.
2016 Year-to-Date So let's look at how they are doing this year so far. Fund performance-wise, it hasn't been too good, but they do remain profitable. These fund businesses are designed so that their fixed expenses are covered by their management fees. Big bonuses are paid out only when the funds make money.
Anyway, let's look at 2016 so far in terms of economic income.
In the 3Q of 2016, economic income was $57.4 million. Equity-based compensation expense was $18.3 million so adjusted economic income was $39.1 million. Annualize that and you get $156 million. Using 520 million fully diluted shares (share amount used to calculate distributable earnings in the earnings press release), that comes to $0.30/share adjusted economic income. So at $3.00/share, OZM is trading at 10x arguably depressed earnings. (This excludes the FCPA settlement amount). If you include $400 million of the FCPA preferreds (total to be offered eventually), then the P/E would actually be closer to 12.6x.
For the year to date, economic income was $195 million, and equity-based comp expense was $56 million so adjusted economic income was $139 million. Again using 520 million shares, that comes to $0.25/share in adjusted economic earnings per share. Annualize that and you get $0.33/share. So at $3.00/share, OZM is trading at 9x depressed earnings, or 11x including the FCPA preferred.
OK, so maybe this is not really 'depressed'. With still a lot of AUM, it is possible that AUM keeps going down.
AUM was $37 billion in November, but let's say it goes down to $30 billion. That's actually a big dip. But let's say AUM goes down there. And then let's assume 1% management fees, 20% incentive fees, and economic income margin of 50% (averaged 56% in past five years) and the OZM master fund return of 5%.
In this case, economic income would be $300 million. Equity-based comp costs seems steady at around $100 million, so we deduct that to get adjusted economic income. This comes to $200 million.
That comes to around $0.40/share. At $3.00/share, that's 7.5x adjusted economic earnings, or a 13% yield, or 9.4x and 10.6% yield including the FCPA preferreds.
So that's not bad. We are assuming AUM dips to $30 billion and OZM funds only earn 5%/year, and with that assumption the stock is trading at this cheap level.
Things, of course, can get much worse. If performance doesn't improve, AUM will keep going down. You can't really stress test these things as you can just say their returns will never recover and that's that.
On the other hand, any improvement can get you considerable upside.
If assets return to $40 billion and returns average 6% over time, economic income margin goes to 56% (average of past five years), adjust economic income per share is $0.76/share and the stock could be worth $7.60/share for more than a double.
Here's a matrix of possibilities. Skeptics will say, where are the returns below 5% and AUM below $30 billion?!
Well, OK. If returns persist at lower than 5%, it's safe to assume that AUM will go down and this may well end up a zero. That is certainly a possibility. It wouldn't shock many for another hedge fund to shut down.
On the other hand, if things do stabilize, normalize and OZM recovers and does well, there is a lot of upside here. What is interesting to me is that the market is discounting a lot of bad and not pricing in much good. This is when opportunities occur, right?
5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 30,000 $0.45 $0.52 $0.58 $0.65 $0.71 $0.78 35,000 $0.56 $0.64 $0.71 $0.79 $0.86 $0.94 40,000 $0.67 $0.76 $0.84 $0.93 $1.01 $1.10 45,000 $0.78 $0.87 $0.97 $1.07 $1.16 $1.26 50,000 $0.88 $0.99 $1.10 $1.21 $1.32 $1.42 55,000 $0.99 $1.11 $1.23 $1.35 $1.47 $1.58 60,000 $1.10 $1.23 $1.36 $1.49 $1.62 $1.75
The row above is the assumed return of the OZM funds. The left column is the AUM. Assumptions are 1% management fee, 20% incentive fee, 56% economic income margin (excluding equity-based comp expense) and $100 million/year in equity-based comp expense.
It shows you that it doesn't take much for adjusted economic income per share to get back up to closer to $1.00, and can maintain $0.45/share even in a $30 billion AUM and 5% return scenario making the current stock price cheap even under that scenario.
Conclusion Having said all that, there is still a lot of risk here. Low returns and low bonuses can easily make it hard for OZM to keep their best people. But if their best people perform, I assume they do get paid directly for their performance so that shouldn't be too much of an issue.
A lot of the lower returns in recent years is no doubt due to their higher AUM. But it is also probably due to crowding of the hedge fund world and low interest rates leading to an overall lower return environment for all.
If you think these things are highly cyclical, then you can expect interest rates to normalize at some point. Money flowing out of hedge funds should also be good for future returns in these strategies. The part of lower returns at OZM due to higher AUM may not reverse itself, though, if OZM succeeds in maintaining and increasing AUM over time.
But even without the blowout, high returns of the 1990's, OZM can make decent returns over time as seen in the above table.
In any case, unlike a few years ago, the stock prices of many alternative managers are cheap (and I demonstrated how cheap OZM might be here) and institutional money seems to be flowing out of these strategies.
So: OZM is cheap and is in a seemingly universally hated industry Money is flowing out of these strategies, particularly performance chasing institutions (that you would often want to fade) there is a bear market in active managers and bubble in indexing (which may actually increase opportunities for active managers) value spreads are wide and has been widening for years making mean reversion overdue etc. These things make OZM a compelling play on these various themes.
I would treat this more like an option, though. Buy it like you would buy an option, not like you would invest in, say, a Berkshire Hathaway.
There are a lot of paths here to make good money, but there are also plenty of ways to lose. If you look at this like a binary option, it can be pretty interesting!
Posted by kk at 8:11 PM No comments: Links to this post Email This BlogThis! Share to Twitter Share to Facebook Share to Pinterest
Labels: OZM
Saturday, October 29, 2016 Gotham's New Fund Joel Greenblatt was in Barron's recently. He is one of my favorite investors so maybe it's a good time for another post.
Anyway, this new fund is kind of interesting as I am sort of a tinkerer; this is like the product of some financial tinkering. I don't know if it's the right product for many, but we'll take a look.
But first, let's see what he has to say about the stock market in general.
The Market Greenblatt says that the market is "expensive". The market is in the 21st percentile of expensive in the past 25 years. Either a typo or he misspoke, he is quoted as saying that the market has been more expensive 79% of the time in the past 25 years. Of course, he means the market has been cheaper 79% of the time.
The year forward expected return from this price level is between 2% to 7%, so he figures it averages out to 4% to 6% per year. In the past 25 years, the market has returned 9% to 10%/year so he figures the market is 12% to 13% more expensive than it used to be.
He says: Well, one scenario could be that it drops 12% to 13% tomorrow and future returns would go back to 9% to 10%. Or you could underearn for three years at 4% to 6%. We're still expecting positive returns, just more muted. The intelligent strategy is to buy the cheapest things you can find and short the most expensive.
But... Immediately, bears will say that this 25 year history is based during a period when interest rates went down. The 10 year bond rate was around 8% back in 1991, and is now 1.8%. In terms of valuation, this would have pushed up asset values by 6.2%/year ($1.00 discounted at 8%/year then and $1.00 discounted by 1.8% now).
Declining rates were certainly a factor in stock returns over the past 25 years. Of course, the stock market didn't keep going up as rates kept going down. The P/E ratio of the S&P 500 index at the end of 1990 was around 15x, and now it's 25x according to Shiller's database (raw P/E, not CAPE). So the valuation gain over the 25 years accounted for around 2%/year of the 9-10% return Greenblatt states.
Here are the EPS estimates for the S&P 500 index according to Goldman Sachs:
 EPS P/E
2016 $105 20.4x 2017 $116 18.5x 2018 $122 17.6x
Earnings estimates are not all that reliable (estimates have been coming down consistently in the past year or so). But since most of 2016 is done, I suppose the $105 figure should be OK to use.
I don't know if it's apples to apples (reported versus operating etc.), but if we assume the 'current' P/E of the market is 20x, then the valuation tailwind accounted for 1.2%/year of the 9-10%. But then of course, even if this was a fair comparison, there is still the aspect of lower interest rates boosting the economy by borrowing future demand (and therefore overstating historical earnings).
In any case, one of the main bearish arguments is that this interest rate tailwind in the past will become a headwind going forward. Just about everyone agrees with that.
But as I have mentioned before, calling turns in interest rates is very hard, Japan being a great example. If you look at interest rates over the past 100 years or more, you see that major turns in trend don't happen all that often; it's been a single trend of declining rates since the 1980/81 peak, basically. What are the chances that you are going to call the next big turn correctly? I would bet against anyone trying. OK, that didn't come out right. I wouldn't necessarily be long the bond market either.
Gotham Index Plus So, back to the topic of Gotham's new fund. It is a fascinating idea. The fund will go long the S&P 500 index, 100% long, and then overlay a 90%/90% long/short portfolio of the S&P 500 stocks based on their valuations.
The built-in leverage alone makes this sort of interesting. Many institutions may have an allocation to the S&P 500 index, and then some allocation to long/short equity hedge funds. The return of the Gotham Index plus would be much higher (when things go well).
I think this sort of thing was popular at some point in the pension world; index plus alpha etc. Except I think a lot of those were institutions replacing their S&P 500 index portfolios with futures positions, and then using the cash raised to buy mortgage securities. Of course, when things turned bad, oops; they took big hits in S&P 500 futures, tried to post cash for the margin call and realized that their mortgage funds weren't liquid (and was worth a lot less than they thought).
Or something like that.
There is risk here too, of course. You are overlaying two risk positions on top of each other. When things turn bad, things can certainly get ugly.
I think Greenblatt's calculation is that when things turn bad, the long/short usually does well. I haven't seen any backtests or anything, so I don't know what the odds of a blowup are.
Expensive stocks tend to be high-beta stocks and cheaper stocks may be lower beta, so in a market correction, the high-beta, expensive names may go down a lot harder.
To some extent, lower valuations may reflect more cyclicality, lower credit risk / lower balance sheet quality too so you have to be a little careful. In a financial crisis-like situation, lower valuation (lower credit quality) can tank and some higher valuation names may hold up (like the FANG-like stocks).
But Greenblatt's screen is not just raw P/E or P/B, but is tied to return on capital, so maybe this is not as much of an issue compared to a pure P/B model.
The argument for this structure is that people can't stay with a strategy if it can't keep up with the market. Here, the market return is built in from the beginning and you just hope for the "Plus" part to kick in. In a long/short portfolio, the beta is netted out to a large extent so can lower potential returns. This fixes that. But there is a cost to that.
In any case, I do think it's a really interesting product, but keep in mind that it is a little riskier than Gotham's other offerings.
Oh, and go read the article on why this new fund is a good idea. Greenblatt is always a great read.
Chipotle (CMG) Well, Chipotle earnings came out and it was predictably horrible. The stock is not cheap so it hasn't been recommendable in a while, but I really like the company. There was a really long article on them recently which was a great read. It didn't really change my view of them all that much. I think they will get a lot of business back, eventually.
The earnings call was OK, but what was depressing about it was that they decided to ditch Shophouse. I don't think any analysts asked about it so it was a given, I guess. I had it a couple of times in DC and liked it and was looking forward to it in NY, but I guess that's not going to happen. As an investor, that was not baked into the cake, I don't think, even though there was probably some hope that the CMG brand can be extended into other categories.
This puts a lot of doubt into that idea. Someone said that brand extensions in restaurants/retail never work, and that has proven to be the case here. I wouldn't get too excited about pizza and burgers either. Burgers are really crowded now and will only get more so.
If CMG has to look to Europe for growth, that is not so great either as the record of U.S. companies expanding into Europe is not good. I would not count on Europe growth.
Anyway, this doesn't mean it's all over for CMG. I think they will come back, but there are some serious headwinds now other than their food poisoning problem; more competition etc. They were the only game in town for a while, but now everyone seemingly wants to become the next Chipotle, so there are a lot of options out there now.
As for Ackman's interest in CMG, I have no idea what his plan is. There is no real estate here as CMG rents all their restaurants, and their restaurants had high 20's operating margins at their peak. I don't know if they will ever get back up there, but it's not like these guys don't know how to run an efficient operation. Maybe Ackman sees SGA opportunities, but pre-crisis, SGA was less than 7%, so there wouldn't be that much of a boost from cutting SGA. Or maybe he thinks it's time for CMG to do what everyone else is doing and go for the franchise model. Who knows? I look forward to seeing what his thoughts are; hopefully some 500 page presentation pops up somewhere...
McDonalds I don't want to turn this into a food blog, but I can't resist mentioning this. I have been a lifelong MCD customer; I have no problem with it. OK, it may not be my first choice of a meal in most cases, but it's fine. And when you have a kid, you tend to go more often that you'd like. But still, it's OK. It is what it is, right?
I like the remodelling that they are doing, and the fact that they have free wifi is great too. But here's a big clustermuck they had with their recent custom burger and kiosk idea. I walked into a MCD without knowing anything about any of this recently. A lady said I can order at the kiosk and I said, no, I'll just go to the counter, thank you.
And I waited 10 minutes or so in line, looking up at the tasty looking special hamburgers on the HD, LCD menu board. It was finally my turn at the cash register and I said I want that tasty looking hamburger up there on the screen. And the lady said, oh, you can only order that at the kiosk. I was like, huh? That was really annoying. So I wait all this time and I can't get what I want; I have to walk all the way back and get in another line again? Come on! At that point, I didn't want any other burger so I just ordered a salad (and the usual for my kid).
OK, so it's my fault, probably. User error. But as a service company, as far as I'm concerned, that was a massive fail on the part of MCD.
OK, Now That I started... And by the way, since I got myself started, let me get these two out too. Yes, I spend too much time at fast food joints. Guilty. But still, here are my two peeves related to two of my favorite fast casual places:
Shake Shack: Being dragged there all the time, I have learned to love the Shack-cago hot dog. Chicken Shack is awesome too, in case you don't want to eat hamburgers all the time. But I can't tell you how often they get take-out and stay wrong. I had a long run where they didn't get it right at all and had to ask for things to be packed to go. It is really annoying and wastes everyone's time.
Chipotle: This hasn't happened to me the last couple of times, but this is the usual conversation that happens to me just about every time I go to Chipotle.
CMG: "Hi, what can we get you today?" (or some such) Me: "Um, I'll have a burrito..." CMG: putting the tortilla in the tortilla warmecooker, "and would you like white rice or brown rice? Me: "White rice is fine" CMG: with tortilla still in the cooker, "and black beans or pinto beans?" Me: "black beans". CMG: laying a sheet of aluminum foil on the counter and placing the tortilla on it, moving over to the rice area, "Was that white rice or brown rice?" Me: "white rice" CMG: sliding over to the beans, "and black beans or pinto beans?". Me: "black".
I can't tell you how many times this exact thing happened to me. If you can't remember what I say, don't ask beforehand! Just ask when we get to whatever you are going to ask me about! This is not rocket science, lol... Incredibly annoying.
Anyway, I still love CMG and will keep eating there.
Oh, and to make things interesting, I decided to post a contact email address in the "about" section of the blog. I will try to respond to every email, but keep in mind I may not look in that email box all the time.
I will try to post more, though.
http://brooklyninvestor.blogspot.com/2016/11/perpetual-option-och-ziff-capital.html (read original with tables)
submitted by BobFine to stocks [link] [comments]

[FX Test*1] Orion Code Review Big Scam Exposed | Learn More to Reveal Truth

[FX Test*1] Orion Code Review Big Scam Exposed | Learn More to Reveal Truth Yes ! You have taken Right Decision to visit our Orion Code Review. Orion Code was created by Edward Robinson and after receiving many requests we decided to investigate this trading Software. We spent the last two weeks testing the robot, verifying the legitimacy of the creator and also talk to the actual users of the system and now we are ready to share our verdict.
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In what seems to be the latest in a chain of binary options scams, the recent Orion Code online trading Robot by Edward Robinson seems to beat the lot by a knock out. Industry-leading blogs have already reviewed this fake app and reached the resounding conclusion that it deserves to be blacklisted and branded as fraudulent software. Apparently, due to the deceptive and misleading nature of this new system, hundreds of day-traders looking to profit trading binary options have ended up losing their initial investment and are now being relentlessly spammed by aggressive email marketers looking to promote other offers. Still, experienced bloggers were able to detect the deceptive patterns and exposed the real identity of the actor. Keep reading to see who it is.
What Is Orion Code? The Orion Code software is a fake app and auto-trader designed with pure malice and deliberately designed to steal money. It was allegedly created by Edward Robinson who is a B Movie actor named Jeff Gorham. The software is a complete replica of an older scam dubiously named the “Quantum Code” and starts off when Robinson claims he is referred to as “the Wall Street Wizard, Millionaire Trader, and the nicest rich guy in the world”. He then proceeds to boldly claim the software can make any novice trader as much as $10,000 a day, and the wins are guaranteed with a 100% win rate. He states that this incredible level of accuracy is achieved due to NQS technology, which means “Near Orion Speed”.
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Who is Edward Robinson? He claims to be a self-made millionaire featured in “Forbes as well as other financial magazines”, but in reality he is a cheating actor name Jeff Gorham! This performer played in a few B movies such as Sandy Boulevard and Pogtown.
Is this Software Free? No, and that’s another lie! It’s going to cost you at least $250 to use this software and this money will be charged to you credit card via their recommended brokers which may or may not be regulated.
Review Summary and Conclusions The Orion Code online trading Robot by Edward Robinson is a BLACKLISTED SCAM. All the industry leading blogs have reviewed it, and very similar to the Dubai Lifestyle App it is directly responsible for causing much misery and grief for many day traders, and there is nothing genuine or legit about it besides the intent of the affiliate marketers behind it to steal your money.
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Orion.,Code.,Review.,:.,Scam.,Software.,!!.,Important.,Warning.,!! ...bestbinaryoptionssignal..,/orion-code-review-scam-software/ .,Rating:.,2.,-.,‎Review.,by.,James.,John 6.,days.,ago.,-.,**Read.,this.,Important.,Orion.,Code.,Software.,Review.,!!.,The.,Orion.,Code.,App.,is.,nothing.,but.,a.,rehash.,of.,the.,notorious.,Quantum.,Code.,scam. Orion.,Code.,Review.,(Quantum.,Code.,Relaunch).,-.,Objective.,Binary.,... .s://objectivebinaryoptions..,/orion-code-review/ .,Rating:.,1.,-.,‎Review.,by.,James 4.,days.,ago.,-.,Orion.,Code.,by.,"Edward.,Robinson,".,formerly.,known.,as.,Quantum.,Code,.,is.,another.,binary.,options.,auto.,trading.,scam..,The.,name.,has.,changed,.,... No.,Loss.,Orion.,Code.,Review.,Edward.,Robinson.,CEO.,The.,Orion.,Code.,... Video.,for.,Orion.,code.,Review▶.,2:11 .s://...youtube..,/watch?v=m_-jaMVAkbU 3.,hours.,ago.,-.,Uploaded.,by.,Orion.,Code No.,Loss.,Orion.,Code.,Review.,Edward.,Robinson.,The.,Orion.,Code.,Software.,Testimonial.,.://tinyurl..,.,... Orion.,Code.,Review.,-.,SCAM.,WARNING?.,-.,YouTube Video.,for.,Orion.,code.,Review▶.,1:04 .s://...youtube..,/watch?v=PJMdR8PcCt8 Oct.,21,.,2016.,-.,Uploaded.,by.,Top.,Reviews Orion.,Code.,Review.,==▻.,.://budurl.me/DownloadNOW157←.,Start.,Here.,Locating.,an.,unbiased.,review.,for.,... The.,Orion.,Code.,Review.,Is.,Orion.,Code.,Software.,SCAM.,Or.,REAL.,... ...thedailyhastings..,/reviews/the-orion-code-review-orion-code-software-scam-... Oct.,21,.,2016.,-.,The.,Orion.,Code.,Review.,Is.,Orion.,Code.,Software.,SCAM.,Or.,REAL?.,How.,To.,Use.,The.,Orion.,Code.,System.,APP.,To.,Make.,A.,Huge.,Profits? 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Orion.,Code.,Trading.,Software.,Review.,-.,Is.,Orion.,Code.,a.,Scam? top7binaryrobots..,/review/orion-code/ What.,is.,Orion.,Code.,System.,&.,Who.,is.,Edward.,Robinson?.,Check.,This.,100%.,Exclusive.,OrionCode.,Review.,by.,Experts.,Is.,This.,Binary.,Options.,Software.,Scam.,or.,... Orion.,Code.,Review.,-.,SCAM.,Refurbished.,with.,NEW.,Name!!.,|.,Elite.,Club .s://...binaryoptionseliteclub..,.,›.,....,›.,Orion.,Code.,Scam.,Orion.,Code.,Review 5.,days.,ago.,-.,The.,Orion.,Code.,Software.,is.,a.,scam.,by.,Edward.,Robinson..,This.,honest.,unbiased.,Orion.,code.,review.,will.,expose.,the.,suspicious.,elements.,behind.,... The.,Orion.,Code.,Review.,Is.,Orion.,Code.,SCAM.,APP.,....,-.,JVzoo.,Reviews ...jvzooreviews..,/the-orion-code-review-is-orion-code-scam-app-or-legit-system/ Oct.,22,.,2016.,-.,The.,Orion.,Code.,Review.,By.,Edward.,Robinson.,Is.,The.,Orion.,Code.,Scam.,System.,Or.,Legit.,Software.,?.,is.,The.,Orion.,Code.,Worth.,Your.,Money? The.,Orion.,Code.,is.,a.,SCAM.,Software!!.,A.,Deja.,Vu.,Warning.,Review!! binaryoptionsgorilla..,/orion-code-scam-review/ .,Rating:.,1.,-.,‎Review.,by.,BO.,Gorilla Oct.,20,.,2016.,-.,Real.,Warning.,SCAM.,Review!!.,The.,Orion.,Code.,software.,by.,Edward.,Robinson.,is.,a.,new.,FRAUD.,auto.,trader.,that.,was.,created.,to.,STEAL.,your.,... The.,Orion.,Code.,Review.,Is.,Orion.,Code.,Software.,SCAM.,APP?.,|.,IT.,... itdecs..,/reviews/orion-code-review-orion-code-software-scam-app Oct.,21,.,2016.,-.,Read.,My.,The.,Orion.,Code.,Review.,Now.,To.,Make.,The.,Right.,Decision..,If.,you.,are.,looking.,for.,this.,The.,Orion.,Code.,Reviews.,”.,is.,The.,Orion.,Code.,A.,... Orion.,Code.,Scam?.,Critical.,theorioncode..,.,Software.,Review! .s://...binaryoptionsspot..,/orion-code-scam-review/ .,Rating:.,1.,-.,‎Review.,by.,BO.,Spot Oct.,20,.,2016.,-.,The.,Orion.,Code.,Software.,is.,new.,binary.,options.,trading.,platform..,Allegedly.,the.,system.,promises.,high.,profits.,but.,is.,it.,real?.,Check.,our.,... Orion.,Code.,Review.,-.,Quick.,Cash.,System.,Review quickcashsystem..,/tag/orion-code-review Oct.,21,.,2016.,-.,The.,Orion.,Code.,System.,Review.,Does.,The.,Orion.,Code.,Software.,Works.,Or.,Just.,A.,Scam.,APP?.,What.,is.,TheOrionCode..,.,About?.,My.,The.,Orion.,... Orion.,Code.,Software.,Scam.,Review!.,NOT.,100%.,Win.,NQS.,Trading.,... ...binaryoptions-sentinel..,/orion-code-software-scam-review/ Oct.,21,.,2016.,-.,Orion.,Code.,Software.,by.,Edward.,Robinson.,a.,SCAM.,Auto.,Trading.,System.,or.,LEGIT?.,Read.,Review.,that.,exposes.,LIES.,on.,Near.,Orion.,Speed.,... Orion.,Code.,Review!.,AVOID.,THIS.,FRAUDULENT.,SCAM! binaryoptionspatrol..,/watch-orion-code-scam/ .,Rating:.,2.,-.,‎Review.,by.,Patrol Oct.,23,.,2016.,-.,Orion.,Code.,is.,nothing.,more.,but.,a.,deceitful.,trading.,fraud.,with.,very.,good.,sales.,techniques,.,if.,you're.,looking.,to.,invest.,in.,this.,software,.,please.,read.,... 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The.,Orion.,Code.,Review.,-.,Is.,Orion.,Code.,a.,SCAM? ...betoroption..,.,›.,Orion.,Code Oct.,22,.,2016.,-.,Orion.,Code.,Review..,When.,I.,was.,reviewing.,trends.,in.,auto.,trader.,scam.,recently.,with.,some.,colleagues,.,there.,was.,a.,consensus.,that.,binary.,... User.,orion.,-.,Code.,Review.,Stack.,Exchange codereview.stackexchange..,/users/38270/orion orion.,top.,44%.,overall..,Apparently,.,this.,user.,prefers.,to.,keep.,an.,air.,of.,mystery.,about.,them..,5.,answers..,0.,questions..,~4k.,people.,reached..,Member.,for.,2.,years,.,... The.,Orion.,Code.,Review,.,New.,Binary.,Options.,Trading.,Software.,... ...wsmv..,/.../the-orion-code-review-new-binary-options-trading-soft...WSMV‑TV Oct.,21,.,2016.,-.,Making.,The.,Orion.,Code.,binary.,options.,trading.,much.,easier,.,Edward.,Robinson.,has.,released.,his.,new.,binary.,options.,trading.,software.,that.,... Orion.,Code.,Review.,–.,Scam.,Or.,Legit.,Software? binaryoptions24..,/orion-code-review/ Oct.,20,.,2016.,-.,The.,Orion.,Code.,–.,You.,can.,easily.,pull.,a.,crazy.,$5,500.,to.,$17,500.,per.,day.,using.,this.,simple.,and.,100%.,automated.,trading.,FREE.,system..,What.,is.,... The.,Orion.,Code.,Review.,Is.,Orion.,Code.,SCAM.,System.,Or.,Legit.,Software? .s://forexleaks.info/the-orion-code-review-is-orion-code-scam-system-or-legit-soft... Oct.,22,.,2016.,-.,....,Edward.,Robinson.,The.,Orion.,Code.,Software.,Scam.,Or.,NOT?.,What.,is.,The.,Orion.,Code.,?.,Read.,Our.,The.,Orion.,Code.,System.,Review.,To.,Get.,$1K. The.,Orion.,Code.,Review.,Is.,Orion.,Code.,SCAM.,APP.,Or.,Legit.,System.,... citidelltd..,/the-orion-code-review-is-orion-code-scam-app-or-legit-system/ Oct.,22,.,2016.,-.,The.,Orion.,Code.,Software.,is.,New.,Brand.,Revolutionary.,Binary.,Options.,Signals.,APP.,Software.,That's.,Really.,Works.,in.,Effective.,Way..,I.,started.,... The.,Orion.,Code.,Review.,Is.,Orion.,Code.,Software.,Scam.,Or.,Not.,... forexcaptain.info/the-orion-code-review-is-orion-code-software-scam-or-not/ Oct.,22,.,2016.,-.,Read.,My.,The.,Orion.,Code.,Software.,Honest.,Review.,Now.,To.,Make.,The.,Right.,Decision..,If.,you.,are.,looking.,for.,this.,The.,Orion.,Code.,Reviews.,”.,is.,... Orion.,Code.,Version.,8.,|.,Facebook .s://...facebook..,/OrionCodeVersion8 The.,Orion.,Code.,Version.,8.,Review.,-.,Special.,Information.,About.,Edward.,Robinson.,The.,Orion.,Code.,Software.,System.,Reviews.,Orion.,Code.,Version.,8.0. The.,Orion.,Code.,Software.,Is.,The.,Orion.,Code.,LEGIT.,Or.,SCAM? citidelltd.co/the-orion-code-software-orion-code-legit-scam Oct.,21,.,2016.,-.,The.,Orion.,Code.,Review.,description.,has.,been.,released.,by.,Edward.,Robinson,.,regarding.,the.,new.,Unlimited.,Profits.,binary.,options.,system.,... Is.,The.,Orion.,Code.,A.,Scam.,-.,Citidel.,LTD.,Investment.,APP.,Review.,Is.,... citidelltd.co/tag/is-the-orion-code-a-scam Oct.,21,.,2016.,-.,The.,Orion.,Code.,Review.,description.,has.,been.,released.,by.,Edward.,Robinson,.,regarding.,the.,new.,Unlimited.,Profits.,binary.,options.,system.,... Edward.,Robinson.,Scam.,Alert.,–.,Don't.,Trust.,The.,Orion.,Code.,|.,Online.,... onlinefinancialsuccessstory..,.,›.,Binary.,Options.,Software Oct.,21,.,2016.,-.,In.,this.,review.,of.,Orion.,Code.,I.,will.,prove.,to.,you.,that.,the.,whole.,system.,is.,a.,scam.,and.,that.,you.,CANNOT.,TRUST.,this.,guy.,Edward.,Robinson.you.,CANNOT.,TRUST.,this.,guy.,Edward.,Robinson.
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Binary Options Reviews - YouTube

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